Safe Yields by Lipper Category

Chart #1 shows Total Return for the past 12 months of funds in Lipper Categories versus risk as measured by the Ulcer Index which is based on the length and duration of drawdowns. Three clusters of categories can be seen. The upper leftmost cluster are those with low risk and higher returns. The size of the sphere is proportional to the yield. The lower left most cluster are those with lower returns and higher risk. The center cluster represents those with moderate risk and returns. What the chart shows is that most higher yielding funds have higher risk.

Figure #1: Seeking Yield with Low Risk

Seeking Yield With Low RiskSource: Created by the Author Based on Mutual Fund Observer Screens

Table #1 contains the data used in Chart #1. All categories have at least 2% yield. The green area is the low risk categories with moderate 12-month returns. The yield divided by Ulcer Index represents the yield that an investor receives for the risk (Ulcer Index) that they are taking. Martin Ratio is the risk free, risk-adjusted return. The yellow cells contain categories that have slightly more risk, decent 12-month returns and slightly higher yields. The categories in the red shaded area are higher risk categories which have also had lower returns. I added a fourth category of funds that have exhibited low risk, but I believe with COVID recurring in some regions have higher risk. The top two categories are the ones where I prefer to invest.

Table #1: Lipper Categories by Return, Yield and Risk

Source: Created by the Author Based on Mutual Fund Observer Screens

Table #2 contains some of the top-ranked funds from my ranking system based on risk, risk-adjusted returns, momentum, income, and quality. These correspond to the green shaded “lowest risk” categories in

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters)U.S. stocks rebounded to close sharply higher on Wednesday after incremental stimulus proposals helped investors recover from the shock of President Donald Trump’s announcement on Tuesday that he would halt stimulus talks until after the Nov. 3 election.

Increased risk appetite also resulted in weaker Treasury prices and a steepening yield curve as markets were heartened that at least some fiscal aid measures to help an economy battered by the coronavirus pandemic were still on the table.

While White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said he was “not optimistic for a comprehensive deal,” Trump appeared to relent somewhat, urging Congress to pass a $25 billion airline bailout, a move also supported by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

In separate Twitter posts, Trump also expressed willingness to approve sending stand-alone $1,200 relief checks to Americans and urged Congress to approve the $135 billion payroll protection program for small businesses.

“Investors grow optimistic when there is any type of stimulus, whether it’s a large package or more discrete,” said Joseph Sroka, chief investment officer at NovaPoint in Atlanta. “There’s interest on both sides in having some kind of stimulus as the election approaches.”

“The most important issue for them is who gets to take credit for it,” Sroka added.

The U.S. Federal Reserve released the minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting, which revealed many members of the Federal Open Market Committee said their economic outlook assumed additional fiscal support, and if a stimulus package from Congress was too small or came later than expected, the economic recovery could be slower than anticipated.

This echoed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warning on Tuesday that the economic recovery would slip into a downward spiral if Congress fails to provide additional fiscal

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters)U.S. stocks bounced back in a broad rally on Wednesday as investors recovered from the shock of President Donald Trump’s announcement that he intended to halt stimulus talks until after the election, and were relieved that pandemic relief could be passed incrementally.

The risk-on mood was also reflected in weaker Treasury prices and a steepening yield curve as markets were heartened that at least some fiscal aid measures were still on the table, a day after Trump’s tweet sent markets into a nosedive.

While White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said he was “not optimistic for a comprehensive deal,” Trump relented somewhat, urging Congress to pass a $25 billion airline bailout, a move also supported by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

In another tweet on Wednesday, Trump also urged Congress to approve the $135 billion payroll protection program for small businesses.

“If you can’t agree on an overall package but there are elements that you can agree on go ahead,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.

“Two elements that are needed are some kind of bailout for the airline industry, and additional aid to allow people to pay bills and buy groceries,” Tuz added. “Those are things that are unequivocal and agreed on by both sides.”

The U.S. Federal Reserve released the minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting, which revealed many members of the Federal Open Market Committee said their economic outlook assumed additional fiscal support, and if a stimulus package from Congress was too small or came later than expected, the economic recovery could be slower than anticipated.

This echoed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warning on Tuesday that the economic recovery would slip into a downward spiral if Congress fails to

By Olga Cotaga

LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters)The price for benchmark German debt increased on Wednesday after German industrial output unexpectedly slipped in August, suggesting the recovery in Europe’s largest economy from the coronavirus shock could be weaker than hoped.

German 10-year yields fell 1.6 basis points to -0.52% DE10YT=RR after inching to a two-week high on Tuesday.

The day before, the gap between German and U.S. 10-year yields US10DE10=RR widened to its largest since March as U.S. yields rose. They gave back those gains after President Donald Trump on Tuesday abruptly cancelled talks in Washington over coronavirus aid.

For the Italian 10-year government bond, the yield fell to its lowest in more than a year at 0.765% IT10YT=RR as traders expected more monetary policy stimulus from eurozone’s central bank. It last traded down 1.6 bps.

On Friday, the Italian 10-year BTP yield fell to a record low of 0.751%, Tradeweb said.

“People think it’s a little bit of a one-way bet on more stimulus being required from the ECB,” said Lyn Graham-Taylor, fixed income strategist at Rabobank.

On Tuesday, dovish comments from the European Central Bank chief raised expectations for further stimulus.

If the euro strengthened, that would increase the likelihood of ECB easing, Graham-Taylor said.

“If the dollar is stronger, it is probably due to some risk-off factors and this is probably also going to encourage the ECB to have to do more easing,” he added.

Traders await minutes from the Federal Reserve to be released later in the day.

ING analysts said they did not expect the minutes “to be an existential threat to the reflation trade taking hold in dollar rates markets.”

Still, forward Fed Fund rates price in the first full hike only by the middle of 2024, which is slightly more hawkish

The entire energy sector has been going through a fierce sell-off over the last four months, in contrast to the broad market, which has been hovering around its all-time highs. Kinder Morgan (KMI) has not escaped the sell-off and thus it is now offering a 4-year high dividend yield of 8.5%. During sell-offs, most investors view such an abnormally high dividend yield as a signal of an imminent dividend cut. However, the dividend of Kinder Morgan is safe.

Business overview

The pandemic has caused a severe recession in the U.S. Consequently, many companies have gone out of business and thus the total commercial demand for natural gas has decreased this year. However, it is critical to note that the effect of the coronavirus crisis on the natural gas market is much smaller than the effect on the oil market. The Energy Information Administration [EIA] expects the average annual U.S. demand for natural gas to decrease only 2.7% this year, from 85.0 Bcfd in 2019 to 82.7 Bcfd. This decline is nearly one-third of the 8.2% decline expected in the global demand for oil products this year.

Moreover, Kinder Morgan has a robust business model, which is exceptionally resilient during downturns thanks to its highly contracted cash flows. Approximately 68% of the operating profit of Kinder Morgan is generated from take-or-pay contracts, which pose minimum volume requirements to the customers of the company, while another 24% of the operating profit comes from fees, which are hardly affected by the gyrations of commodity prices. As the company also hedges 6% of its operating profit, it is evident that only 2% of its operating profit is directly exposed to the underlying commodity prices.

The limited effect of the pandemic on the natural gas market and the resilient business model of Kinder Morgan were