China built its relatively quick recovery through several measures, including stringent lockdown and population tracking policies intended to contain the virus. The government also set aside hundreds of billions of dollars for major infrastructure projects, and offered cash incentives to stimulate spending among its populace. The payoff has been evident, as tourism and spending rebounded during last week’s busy Golden Week holiday period.

By the end of the year, China’s share of global GDP is likely to rise by about 1.1 percentage points, according to a CNN Business calculation using World Bank data. That’s more than triple the share it gained in 2019. By contrast, the United States and Europe will see their shares dip slightly.

All told, China’s economy is expected to be worth about $14.6 trillion by the end of 2020, roughly equivalent to 17.5% of global GDP.

Even without the disruption caused by the virus, China’s share would have ticked up this year, according to Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group. But China’s ability to buck the worldwide trend is accelerating the growth in its importance to the global economy.

“The recovery in China has been much stronger than the rest of the world,” Hu added.

A worker in the workshop of a textile company presses out orders for products for the domestic and foreign markets in Haian city, Jiangsu Province, China, on October 3.

A Golden Week boom

The economic improvement has been no more apparent than during this past week, when the country celebrated one of its annual Golden Week holidays. This season’s festivities marked the founding of the People’s Republic of China and the Moon Festival, and was one of the country’s busiest travel seasons of the year.

More than 630 million people traveled around the country during Golden Week, which ended Thursday, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. That’s nearly 80% of the numbers who traveled during the same period last year.

What pandemic? Crowds swarm the Great Wall of China as travel surges during holiday week
Tourist spending, meanwhile, recovered to nearly

Supporters and opponents of Colorado’s statewide ballot measures have pumped $41.7 million just this year toward swaying public opinion on issues that could have far-reaching implications if passed in November.

During a presidential election year in which issues such as abortion access hang in the balance, and at a time when many families are struggling to make ends financially, Colorado’s ballot questions are taking on heightened importance. Measures such as a 22-week ban on abortions and having Colorado support the national popular vote for president are receiving attention — and contributions — from across the state and country. With less than a month to go, advocates are making their final pushes to Election Day — including in the money race.

The committee fighting the proposed ban on abortions after 22 weeks has brought in the most contributions of any issue committee at almost $6.5 million in 2019 and 2020, while proponents of Proposition 115 have raised a fraction of that, according to filings with the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office by Tuesday’s deadline. Three committees supporting the measure raised about $369,000.

Opposition to the abortion measure is being led by women’s reproductive rights groups and progressive allies such as ProgressNow Colorado, Colorado Organization for Latina Opportunity and Reproductive Rights, and Cobalt. Supporters of Proposition 115 include Catholic Charities and citizen advocates.

Although Colorado voters have rejected abortion bans three times before at the ballot box, the vote comes at a critical time with the U.S. Supreme Court vacancy left after the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. President Donald Trump has nominated conservative Judge Amy Coney Barrett to replace her, leaving advocates worried about the potential of Roe v. Wade getting overturned.

Colorado is one of only seven states that doesn’t have gestational limits on when an abortion can take

As you can see in the following chart, the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) has continued downwards during the month with shares erasing most of the gains seen earlier this summer.

At present, I have two different views on UVXY. In the short term, I believe that we’re likely going to see some upside in the instrument in line with seasonal tendencies in the VIX. In the long term, however, I believe that we are almost certainly going to see UVXY head lower.

VIX Markets

To kick this piece off, let’s take a broad thematic look at the current VIX levels.

The VIX is sitting around 27 at the time of writing. Over the past month, we have seen a fair degree of volatility in the VIX with the index hitting as high as 38 early September after touching numbers in the low 20s a few days prior.

Historically speaking, the current VIX level is actually suggestive of short-term declines going forward.

As you can see in the above chart, when the VIX is around the same level that it’s sitting at today, the odds of it rising over the next month are only about 27%. In other words, over the last 27 years, the VIX fell 73% of all times that it was sitting at levels similar to what we’re seeing today.

An important thing to note about this study is that it is very broad – that is, it takes the simple level of the VIX and uses it predictively. In my opinion, this type of study works most of the time (as clearly seen in the statistics); however, it must be framed up by current developments in the markets. Let’s take a short-term look at the S&P 500 to try and gauge where it may