Bitcoin weekly price chart

Bitcoin (BTC) has crossed into bullish territory with the biggest weekly gain in 2.5 months.

  • The top cryptocurrency by market value climbed nearly 6.6% in the seven days to Oct. 11, capping its biggest single-week percentage rise since the last week of July.
  • The flipping of the stiff resistance of $11,200 (Sept. 18) into support is bullish, according to Stack Funds research analyst Lennard Neo.
  • So far, however, the follow-through to the breakout has been poor: The cryptocurrency is currently trading in the red near $11,250, having printed highs near $11,500 over the weekend.
  • However, the pullback may be short-lived, miner outflows suggest.
  • Last week, bitcoin miners sold more than they generated and ran down inventory by around 1,000 BTC, according to data source Bytetree.com.
  • The miners’ rolling inventory (MRI) figure, which tracks the changes in how much bitcoin miners are holding, held well above 100% last week; the five- and 12-week MRIs are also above 100%.
  • Miners liquidate their holdings almost on a daily basis to cover operational costs but will offer more when they feel the market has the strength to absorb the additional coins without harming price.
  • As such, the increased miner outflow is sign of strength in the market, according to Charlie Morris, chief investment officer at ByteTree Asset Management.
  • Additionally, payment company Square’s recent disclosure of major bitcoin investments has given market players a fresh shot of confidence, Philip Gradwell, chief economist at the blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis, told CoinDesk.
  • The major portion of the last week’s 6.6% rise happened after Square announced its bitcoin investment on Thursday.
  • While the path of least resistance for bitcoin appears to be on the higher side, a move to the next major resistance at $12,000 may remain elusive if the resurgence of the coronavirus cases across Europe, tanks

The forward 4-quarter estimate for the S&P 500 returned to its familiar pattern of sequentially moving higher this week, printing $156.08 vs. $155.98 last week. A small increase – yes – but still sequential improvement

Here is a picture of what the spreadsheet looks like tracking the IBES data by Refinitiv:

What fascinates me is that since July 1, only two weeks of the last 16 have seen sequential declines in the forward estimate.

Geeky data “stuff” but numbers tell a story.

  • The forward 4-quarter estimate improved sequentially to $156.08 from last week’s $155.98.
  • The forward PE is 22x.
  • The S&P 500 forward earnings yield fell a little bit this week to 4.49% from 4.64% last week.
  • The “average” expected calendar 2020 and 2021 S&P 500 EPS growth fell to 3.5% this week, from a long string of 4% prints. Let’s see what the next few weeks hold.
  • The “expected” 2021 EPS of $166.22 is still above the 2019 actual EPS of $162.93.

S&P 500 Forward earnings curve:

This week, note the “4-week rate of change”. The sequential increases continued this week, which is always a plus.

Looking at Next 4 Quarters’ Earnings and Revenue Growth:

Showing the same data from various perspectives helps the reader see the y/y change in EPS and revenue growth for the S&P 500.

Sector data will follow tomorrow.

EPS growth for Q3 ’20, Q4 ’20 and Q1 ’21 continue to slowly improve.

Let’s see what this table looks like next week after 15 financials report and readers can see what consumer and commercial credit losses look like.

This blog will have more on the Financial sector over the weekend.

Summary/conclusion: This weekly overview on the S&P 500 numbers – both expected EPS and revenue growth – shows that the positive trends remain in place,

By Alps Funds

GREEN LIGHT FOR ACES LAST WEEK

  • As optimism builds for a second round of U.S. fiscal stimulus due to resurgent COVID-19 cases globally, the ALPS Clean Energy ETF (ACES) soared nearly 10% last week with gains from each of its 7 pure-play clean energy segments. ACES was driven higher by double digit gains from its Solar (+17.46%), Fuel Cell (+15.40%), and Biomass/ Biofuel (+12.39%) segments.
  • ACES Solar names were buoyed by positive analyst sentiment, a potential Democratic election sweep, and positive sentiment on China’s preliminary new clean energy goals, which will be finalized in Q1 2021. Four of the 6 ACES Solar names climbed over 15% on the week, led by Sunpower (SPWR, 1.43% weight) rallying over 27%.

ACCORDING TO THE EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, MORE THAN HALF OF ALL NEW ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY ADDED OVER THE PAST EIGHT YEARS IN THE U.S. HAS BEEN WIND AND SOLAR.

  • Within the Fuel Cell segment, Ballard Power (BLDP, 3.86% weight*) shot up over 12% last week after it announced it will be expanding manufacturing capacity of its fuel cell components by 6x by early 2021. Plug Power (PLUG, 5.39% weight*), the other ACES Fuel Cell name, was up over 21% last week after analysts upgraded the stock on its growth opportunities within fuel cell powered forklifts and heavy duty trucks.

FULLY INTEGRATED SOLAR PANEL AND BATTERY STORAGE SYSTEM IS HERE

  • At its Battery Day a few weeks ago, Tesla (TSLA, 4.49% weight*) highlighted how fast lithium-ion battery costs are declining for use in Elective Vehicles (EVs). Solar equipment suppliers, such as Enphase Energy (ENPH, 5.87% weight*), and solar equipment installers, such as SunPower and Sunrun (RUN, 6.57% weight*), are benefitting from falling battery storage costs as they all roll out fully integrated solar systems with battery storage.

Weekly ALPS ETF Spotlight 1

  • The levelized cost

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell slightly last week to a still-high 840,000, evidence that job cuts remain elevated seven months into the pandemic recession.

The latest sign of a flagging recovery comes two days after President Donald Trump cut off talks over a new rescue aid package that economists say is urgently needed for millions of unemployed Americans and struggling businesses. A failure to enact another round of government aid would crimp household income and spending, and some economists say it would raise the risk of a double-dip recession.

Thursday’s report from the Labor Department said the number of people who are continuing to receive unemployment benefits dropped 1 million to 11 million. The decline suggests that many of the unemployed are being recalled to their old jobs. But it also reflects the fact that some have used up the 26 weeks of their regular state benefits and have transitioned to extended benefit programs that last an additional three months.

In Massachusetts, more than 28,500 individuals filed new unemployment claims, up about 3,000 from the week prior.

Nearly 11,000 more applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefits, which was on par with the previous week’s numbers. The federal program provides aid for gig workers and others who are not eligible for standard state unemployment.

The weekly count of Americans applying for unemployment benefits has become less reliable as some states have increased their efforts to root out fraudulent claims and process earlier applications that have piled up.

California, for example, which accounts for more than one-quarter of the nation’s unemployment applications, last week simply provided the same figure it had supplied two weeks ago. That was because the state has stopped accepting jobless claims online for two weeks so it can implement anti-fraud technology and

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.”Jesse Livermore

Anyone who follows the equity market realizes that they are faced with what I described last week as a foggy outlook in the near term. When that occurs, I try not to get swayed and then sidetracked into forgetting the long-term trends that are in place.

An investor has to be reactionary waiting for the market to give them clues, then reacting appropriately. I take my leads from price action, momentum, sentiment, and other indicators. All designed for me to decipher what the market is telling me. Never drifting too far from the one key that serves as the foundation of my current strategy. That is staying focused on the major trend that is in place, and that remains without question in favor of the bulls.

Once established that trend should be followed until there is evidence that a discernible change is taking place. This bull market has been marked by the masses that keep looking for reasons to abandon this trend. As each month passes, another reason is rolled out why the equity market is filled with more downside risk than upside gains.

Sentiment as a contrary indicator has been a tailwind for anyone bullish. Excessive bullishness would imply the exhaustion of buying power. What we have witnessed for quite some time is that traders and investors appear to be subdued and cautious. The new highs recorded for the S&P just one month ago and the 42 all-time highs recorded by the NASDAQ in 2020 should have given a boost to enthusiasm for equities. Instead, it is met with a yawn.

Major market tops simply do not occur with the amount of