(Bloomberg) — Traders across the world may be coming around to the idea that the U.S. election isn’t going to be the tumultuous event it was once expected to be.

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But the real believers seem to be in emerging markets.

Optimism that the November election result will go uncontested and speculation a U.S. stimulus package will be agreed whatever the outcome are damping concern about fluctuations through year-end. Yet, while U.S. VIX futures declined last week as bets on likely price volatility eased, the drop was slower than for emerging markets.

“It does appear that emerging-market investors are slightly more sanguine about risks through the end of the year than what you’re seeing in developed markets,” said Nick Stadtmiller, a strategist at Medley Global Advisors in New York. “As long as global liquidity remains ample, and as long as global markets at least hold their ground, I would expect emerging-market assets to perform well. Yields on many emerging-market assets are high, especially relative to rock-bottom yields on developed market assets.”



chart: EM volatility index trades at a discount to the VIX gauge for U.S. stocks


© Bloomberg
EM volatility index trades at a discount to the VIX gauge for U.S. stocks

Falling volatility may give investors more confidence to put cash into an asset class enjoying one of its best phases since the virus-induced global sell-off in March. Citigroup Inc. said last week the worst is over for developing-nation assets and Morgan Stanley is betting volatility will continue to ease as the outcome of the November vote becomes clearer.

Emerging-market equities and currencies climbed to an eight-month high on Friday, while local-currency bonds had their best week since May on the prospect of U.S. fiscal stimulus. One-month implied volatility on the Brazilian real, South African rand and Russian ruble fell by the most among peers last week, signaling improved appetite for risk assets.

(Bloomberg) — Traders across the world may be coming around to the idea that the U.S. election isn’t going to be the tumultuous event it was once expected to be.

Loading...

Load Error

But the real believers seem to be in emerging markets.

Optimism that the November election result will go uncontested and speculation that a U.S. stimulus package will have to be agreed whatever the outcome are damping concern about fluctuations through year-end. Yet, while U.S. VIX futures declined last week as bets on likely price volatility eased, the drop was slower than for emerging markets.

“It does appear that emerging-market investors are slightly more sanguine about risks through the end of the year than what you’re seeing in developed markets,” said Nick Stadtmiller, a New York-based strategist at Medley Global Advisors. “As long as global liquidity remains ample, and as long as global markets at least hold their ground, I would expect emerging-market assets to perform well. Yields on many emerging-market assets are high, especially relative to rock-bottom yields on developed market assets.”

Falling volatility may give investors more confidence to put cash into an asset class enjoying one of its best phases since the virus-induced global sell-off in March. Citigroup Inc. said last week the worst is over for developing-nation assets and Morgan Stanley is betting volatility will continue to ease as the outcome of the November vote becomes clearer.



chart: EM volatility index trades at a discount to the VIX gauge for U.S. stocks


© Bloomberg
EM volatility index trades at a discount to the VIX gauge for U.S. stocks

Emerging-market equities and currencies climbed to an eight-month high on Friday, while local-currency debt had its best week since May on the prospect of U.S. fiscal stimulus. One-month implied volatility on the Brazilian real, South African rand and Russian ruble fell by the most among peers last week, signaling improved appetite for

(Bloomberg) — The U.K.’s two financial regulators urged the industry to finish final preparations for a potentially messy no-deal Brexit.



a train that is sitting in front of a large city: A London bus crosses Waterloo bridge against a backdrop of skyscrapers including 22 Bishopsgate office tower, the Leadenhall building, also known as the "Cheesegrater", The Scalpel, and 20 Fenchurch Street, also known as the "Walkie-Talkie" in the City of London, U.K., on Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2020. The European Union will consider about 40 equivalence decisions this year, determining how much equity, fixed-income and other investment banking business can remain in London and still serve EU clients.


© Bloomberg
A London bus crosses Waterloo bridge against a backdrop of skyscrapers including 22 Bishopsgate office tower, the Leadenhall building, also known as the “Cheesegrater”, The Scalpel, and 20 Fenchurch Street, also known as the “Walkie-Talkie” in the City of London, U.K., on Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2020. The European Union will consider about 40 equivalence decisions this year, determining how much equity, fixed-income and other investment banking business can remain in London and still serve EU clients.

With negotiations between the U.K. and European Union still facing roadblocks, the Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority urged finance executives to take further steps to make sure U.K. firms can continue trading stocks and derivatives easily with EU clients.

“Market volatility and disruption to financial services, particularly to EU-based clients, could arise,” the authorities wrote.

While many large clients have done the necessary work to shift derivatives contracts to banks’ EU divisions, there is still work left to do, according to the letter to executives. A last-minute move could create operational risks and “could also amplify any existing market volatility.”



a train that is sitting in front of a large city: A London bus crosses Waterloo bridge against a backdrop of skyscrapers including 22 Bishopsgate office tower, the Leadenhall building, also known as the "Cheesegrater", The Scalpel, and 20 Fenchurch Street, also known as the "Walkie-Talkie" in the City of London, U.K., on Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2020. The European Union will consider about 40 equivalence decisions this year, determining how much equity, fixed-income and other investment banking business can remain in London and still serve EU clients.


© Bloomberg
A London bus crosses Waterloo bridge against a backdrop of skyscrapers including 22 Bishopsgate office tower, the Leadenhall building, also known as the “Cheesegrater”, The Scalpel, and 20 Fenchurch Street, also known as the “Walkie-Talkie” in the City of London, U.K., on Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2020. The European Union will consider about 40 equivalence decisions this year, determining how much equity, fixed-income and other investment banking business can remain in London and still serve EU clients.

The regulators also want firms to give customers ample notice if their service might be cut off or reduced once the Brexit

By Hari Kishan and Rahul Karunakar

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The recent surge in the U.S. dollar will last less than three months, according to a majority of foreign exchange strategists polled by Reuters who said the greenback would have a roller coaster ride in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election.

In September, the dollar rose more than 2% – its best monthly performance this year. But the greenback is still down more than 3% in 2020, a loss which was not expected to be recouped over the coming year, according to the Reuters poll of around 80 strategists taken between Sept. 28 and Oct. 5.

While last week’s ill-tempered debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden reinforced concerns the outcome of the Nov. 3 presidential election could be questioned and boosted the greenback, hopes for U.S. stimulus have had markets in the mood for riskier bets.

The expected pull and push in the currency market in the lead up to the election was underscored by the wide range of forecasts in the one-month-ahead predictions compared to the previous month.

While Trump’s positive test for COVID-19 and data on U.S. currency futures positions point to upside potential in the dollar’s recovery, nearly three-quarters of analysts, 54 of 75, in response to an additional question said the greenback’s recent surge would last less than three months.

That included 13 respondents who said the dollar’s run-up was already over, while the remaining 21 predicted it to run for over three months.

“The outlook for the next month or so is messy to be honest, because of the U.S. election… but the dollar will benefit from the ongoing political uncertainty in the next few weeks,” said Kit Juckes, head of FX strategy, at Societe Generale.

EUR/USD and U.S. Treasuries/German Bund

By Susan Mathew

Oct 2 (Reuters)Argentina’s peso dropped on Friday after the central bank said it would allow a managed float of the currency, while most other Latin American units fell as global sentiment took a hit after U.S. President Donald Trump tested positive for the novel coronavirus.

The Argentine peso ARS=RASL led losses with the bank saying it would abandon its current “uniform daily devaluations and introduce greater volatility” as the gap between the official exchange rate and the rate quoted in informal currency markets widened close to 93%.

The bank said it would offer trades at 76.95 pesos per dollar at Friday’s open, around 0.91% weaker than the close on Thursday. It also increased the important overnight repo rate to 24%, from the current 19%.

“Even if the number of measures announced is not low, we do not expect them to change the current dynamics. The measures are likely to be seen as insufficient and hence run the risk of being counterproductive,” Citigroup Latam FX strategists said a note.

The safe-haven dollar gained traction after Trump and wife, Melania, contracted the disease just four weeks before U.S. elections. FRX/

Brazil’s real BRBY, was flat with data showing industrial output rose, slightly less than expected, continuing a pick-up after shuddering to a standstill during coronavirus-linked lockdowns.

A Reuters poll showed that Latam currencies are set to remain weighed down this quarter by fears about Brazil’s public finances and Mexico’s close link to U.S. politics.

The real was on track for its fourth straight week of losses, down about 1.7%.

Mexico’s peso MXN= continued its recent trend of outperforming regional peers, up 0.7%, all set to post its biggest weekly rise in more than four months.

Currencies of Colombia COP= and Chile CLP= declined 0.7% and