It’s been a volatile couple of months for most gold producers as the correction in the price of gold (GLD) has taken a bite out of many miners’ share prices. Great Panther Mining (NYSEMKT:GPL) is one of the names that has run into some selling pressure with the stock correcting 25% from its August highs. While this has likely left some investors that overpaid for the stock frustrated, the good news is that the stock just came off another solid quarter, with quarterly production of 39,800~ gold-equivalent ounces (GEOs). Given the higher metals prices and improved operations this year, we’ve seen analysts pull their earnings estimates higher, with FY2021 annual EPS estimates now sitting at $0.21. While I see more attractive producers elsewhere in the sector, I see Great Panther as a Speculative Buy at $0.72, given its very reasonable valuation.

(Source: Company Website)

Great Panther Mining released its preliminary Q3 production results last week and reported quarterly production of 39,800~ GEOs, a 3% increase from the 38,500~ GEOs produced last quarter. The company’s flagship Tucano Mine has now produced 93,400 ounces of gold year-to-date, and the mine remains on track to meet its FY2020 production guidance midpoint of 125,000 ounces. While the share price has been under pressure recently due to the sector-wide slump, it’s worth noting that Great Panther has only gotten more attractive as earnings estimates have continued to climb over the past two months. Based on current estimates of $0.21 for FY2021, the stock is trading at just below 5x FY2021 annual EPS estimates. Let’s take a closer look at the most recent quarter below:

(Source: Company News Release)

Beginning with the company’s Tucano Mine in Brazil, it was a relatively soft quarter, with gold production coming in at 31,800~ ounces vs. 35,400~ ounces

(Bloomberg) —

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Poland’s newest stock listing became the largest company on the country’s main exchange, highlighting investor demand for technology exposure as the Eastern European nation is introduced to Nasdaq-level valuations.

Allegro.eu SA shares jumped as much as 51% to 65 zloty at the start of trading in Warsaw on Monday. The firm and its private-equity investors priced the 9.2 billion-zloty ($2.4 billion) IPO at the top end of a marketed range, cashing in on soaring demand for digital sales as consumers stuck at home indulge in virtual retail therapy.

Before the trading start, analysts at Bernstein estimated Allegro’s enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to be about 37, above the likes of Amazon.com Inc and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, but below MercadoLibre Inc. and European fashion retailer Zalando SE, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Allegro was priced close to global technology leaders as it’s already one of the biggest e-commerce companies in the world, which bring interest of many funds that accept higher valuations, given oversupply of the capital,” Haitong analyst Konrad Ksiezopolski said in emailed comments. “E-commerce is a winning industry during the pandemic, which should help the stock. Time will show the impact from competition of Amazon or AliExpress, which is a real test of Allegro’s valuation.”

The company is betting on the continued expansion of online shopping in Poland, a market of 38 million people and one of the European Union’s most resilient economies. Allegro is touting lower fees, a loyalty program, a high number of local merchants and market recognition to fend off competition. Amazon.com Inc. is still selling its products to Poles from Germany, while China-based AliExpress relies on lengthy shipping processes.

A new wave of coronavirus infections in Poland may also end up benefiting the firm,

(Bloomberg) —

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Poland’s newest stock listing is set to become the largest company on the country’s main exchange, highlighting investor demand for technology exposure as the Eastern European nation is introduced to Nasdaq-level valuations.

Allegro.eu SA is set to start trading in Warsaw on Monday, after the firm and its private-equity investors priced the 9.2 billion-zloty ($2.4 billion) IPO at the top end of a marketed range, cashing in on soaring demand for digital sales as consumers stuck at home indulge in virtual retail therapy.

Analysts at Bernstein estimate Allegro’s enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to be about 37, above the likes of Amazon.com Inc and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, but below MercadoLibre Inc. and European fashion retailer Zalando SE, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Allegro was priced close to global technology leaders as it’s already one of the biggest e-commerce companies in the world, which bring interest of many funds that accept higher valuations, given oversupply of the capital,” Haitong analyst Konrad Ksiezopolski said in emailed comments. “E-commerce is a winning industry during the pandemic, which should help the stock. Time will show the impact from competition of Amazon or AliExpress, which is a real test of Allegro’s valuation.”

The company is betting on the continued expansion of online shopping in Poland, a market of 38 million people and one of the European Union’s most resilient economies. Allegro is touting lower fees, a loyalty program, a high number of local merchants and market recognition to fend off competition. Amazon.com Inc. is still selling its products to Poles from Germany, while China-based AliExpress relies on lengthy shipping processes.

A new wave of coronavirus infections in Poland may also end up benefiting the firm, further accelerating the switch to online purchases.



chart, bar chart: Valuation Game


© Bloomberg

As you know, once a month, we look at 29 currencies in search of the evidence of popular delusions and the madness of crowds. The idea is to find anomalies and bullish or bearish divergences that will break the trend, not prolong it. It is a painful exercise, but also highly rewarding.

In order to find the most overbought and oversold currencies, I conduct five econometric studies: over-extension analysis, secular performance analysis, oil correlation review, economic divergence analysis and effective exchange rate study. Additionally, I look at traders’ positioning to understand the psychological state of the market.

Analyzed currency pairs: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GPB/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY.

Relevant ETFs (most popular): CROC, OTC:ERO, EUFX, FXA, FXB, FXC, FXE, FXF, FXY and OTC:GBB.

Macro Forces

Before revealing the results, let me first say a few words about the current global market environment. This is important because global macro conditions cannot be numerically measured and cannot be directly factored into econometrical models. They must be studied in qualitative terms. In my opinion, the most important theme impacting global foreign exchange market right now is the spread of coronavirus and the possible economic damage that it may cause.

See below the outlook on the world’s major economies (China, the Eurozone and the United States) for two scenarios: one with and one without a second wave of the virus.

Source: ABN AMRO; Baseline scenario: second wave less severe, no renewed lockdowns; Negative scenario: a second wave of infections and a second lockdown.

Although the risks of a renewed lockdown are still substantial, the baseline scenario assumes that the virus remains reasonably under control. Local outbreaks will continue (as at present) and fresh measures will be taken where necessary, but no national lockdowns

Investment Thesis

Headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri, UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) is the $29.7 billion asset holding company for UMB Bank. Formally known as United Missouri Bank, UMBF is a commercial-oriented Midwestern bank. While its runs a fairly branch-lite model, UMBF has 95 branches located throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona and Texas.

UMB Financial, along with its sibling bank, Commerce Bancshares (OTC:CBSH), both have a storied century-long history of being run by the Kemper family. With that being said, I have a lot of faith in Mariner Kemper, the current CEO, and his ability to lead the franchise. He has led the bank for more than 15 years and helped grow assets from $8.2 billion to where they are today.

Today, my bullish stance is predicated on a couple of factors. I think the valuation is too low for such a well-run franchise; however, valuation alone does not invoke a great investment thesis. In order for shares to re-accelerate higher, I think there needs to be a definitive line of sight into the net interest margin (NIM) no longer compressing. This alone should help shares work higher in the shorter term. If credit continues to remains stronger than average over the next couple quarters, I think the shares will experience very healthy outperforming trend. In short, the positive NIM outlook should cause a near-term pop in the shares, while solid credit should provide the positive catalyst for long-term outperformance.

ChartData by YCharts

Revenue Outlook

In the second quarter the net interest income came in at $178.2 million, which was actually up a little more than $4 million from first quarter levels. While the NIM did compress in the quarter, overall loan growth (greatly supported by PPP loans) helped drive higher average earning assets to support a higher