The analysis concludes Biden’s plan would raise $2.8 trillion over the next decade from higher taxes on businesses, corporations and the wealthiest households. Over that time, AEI projects the higher taxes would reduce economic growth by a relatively modest 0.16 percent.
The plan would “make the tax code more progressive,” AEI’s Kyle Pomerlau and Grant Seiter write. And after slightly crimping growth in its first decade, it would “reduce debt-to-GDP in the second decade, leading to slightly higher GDP. However, in the long term, his plan would not raise enough to stabilize debt-to-GDP and would lead to a 0.18 percent smaller economy.”
The macroeconomic drag the AEI model anticipates roughly aligns with other analyses from the Tax Foundation and the Penn Wharton Budget Model, Pomerlau notes. In other words, rolling back most of the Trump tax cuts wouldn’t bring about the economic Armageddon the Trump campaign has depicted.
Neither would it jack up taxes on every American.
Vice President Pence made that claim during his debate with Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Biden’s running mate, last week. The AEI analysis finds the top 1 percent of taxpayers would see a 14.2 percent hit to their after-tax income next year. The rest of the top 5 percent would face a small uptick in their burden. But everyone else would receive an after-tax income bump. The largest such increase, of 11.3 percent, would go to the bottom 10 percent, thanks to a temporary expansion of the child tax credit, according to AEI.
The analysis finds that starting in 2030, the Biden plan would impose “modest” tax hikes on the bottom 95 percent of earners, which it attributes to higher taxes on businesses. That would appear to violate Biden’s pledge not to raise taxes on anyone earning less than $400,000