Let’s start the week by looking at last week’s fund flows from ETF.com:

Both SPY and QQQ had outflows last week, although QQQ’s was massive. IWM stands in contrast. This partially explains why small-caps are doing better than larger caps right now. The long end of the treasury market also had a decent inflow of fresh capital.Only defensive sectors had outflows last week — which is interesting since these securities are rising relative to others. Financial services had the largest inflow. This is a bit odd since this sector is probably about to report increased losses and delinquencies caused by the Spring lockdowns. The other inflows were modest, relatively speaking.

Europe is experiencing a virus resurgence (emphasis added):

Earlier in the week, France, Europe’s second-largest economy, downgraded its forecast for the pace of expansion for the last three months of the year from an already minimal 1 percent to zero. Overall, the national statistics agency predicted the economy would contract by 9 percent this year.

The diminished expectations are a direct outgrowth of alarm over the revival of the virus. France reported nearly 19,000 new cases on Wednesday — a one-day record, and almost double the number the day before. The surge prompted President Emmanuel Macron to announce new restrictions, including a two-week shutdown of cafes and bars in Paris and surrounding areas.

In Spain, the central bank governor warned this week that the accelerating spread of the virus could force the government to impose restrictions that would produce an economic contraction of as much as 12.6 percent this year.

This is the same scenario that several Fed governors have warned about: a rising number of virus cases force localities to issue orders that slow economic growth. It’s a very real possibility this fall as flu season gets underway.

By Jan Strupczewski

BRUSSELS, Oct 12 (Reuters)Financial leaders of the world’s seven biggest economies will say on Tuesday that they oppose the launch of Facebook’s FB.O Libra stablecoin until it is properly regulated, a draft G7 statement showed.

The draft, prepared for a meeting of finance ministers and central bankers of the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Britain, said digital payments could improve access to financial services, cut inefficiencies and costs.

But such payment services had to be appropriately supervised and regulated so that they would not undermine financial stability, consumer protection, privacy, taxation or cybersecurity, the draft statement, seen by Reuters, said.

Without proper supervision, such stablecoins could be used for money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing, could compromise market integrity, governance, and undermine legal certainty, it said.

“The G7 continues to maintain that no global stablecoin project should begin operation until it adequately addresses relevant legal, regulatory, and oversight requirements through appropriate design and by adhering to applicable standards,” the draft said.

Stablecoins are tied to a traditional currency or basket of assets, and used for payments or storing value.

The G20’s Financial Stability Board (FSB) set out 10 recommendations in April for a common, international approach to regulating stablecoins, prompted by social media giant Facebook proposing its Libra stablecoin.

The G7 draft notes that a number of G7 authorities are exploring the opportunities and risks associated with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

The European Central Bank said this month that it should prepare to issue a digital euro to complement banknotes and its head Christine Lagarde said on Monday the bank was “very seriously” looking at the creation of a digital euro.

The Bank of England has also launched consultations on a digital pound sterling, but the Bank of Japan and

Emerging markets have had different approaches to coping with COVID-19 and are at different stages of recovery. Our emerging markets equity team examines trends, news and data shaping emerging markets in the third quarter, and shares its latest outlook.

Three Things We’re Thinking About Today

  1. Brazil has been among the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, just behind the United States and India in the number of reported cases. However, we have started to see the number of new cases in Brazil start to decline. Ironically, we believe that the government’s decision against implementing a country-wide lockdown at the onset of the pandemic has reduced the likelihood of a second wave. Heavy government spending and monetary policy easing have helped bring some stability to the economy. Moreover, Brazil has continued to implement key reforms despite political noise. In terms of investment opportunities, we continue to favor the financials sector, especially companies with strong capital market exposure. Interestingly, Brazil’s stock exchange itself has a strong sustainability agenda, while environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles are not only implemented within the exchange itself, but also promoted in the Brazilian stock market broadly. E-commerce is another exciting investment theme, with several large players competing in the online space. As in other countries, the COVID-19 crisis has accelerated the adoption of internet-based retailing in Brazil. Despite continued uncertainties, our view on Brazilian equities is generally positive.

  2. The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of health care in China, reinforcing existing structural trends that could drive a new wave of innovation in the country. Multiple factors are propelling domestic drug and medical device development including rising health care demand, an aging population, growing lifestyle diseases and rising income, coupled with government efforts to strengthen the health care system. In addition, the growing numbers of overseas-educated

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) reports its Q3 ’20 financial results on Tuesday morning, October 13th, 2020, followed up by Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) also reports Wednesday morning, while Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) reports Thursday morning before the opening bell.

All in, I have 15-20 banks and financial names reporting this week, which should give bank investors a good look at credit losses, net interest margin compression, and (possibly) the first look at the guidance for 2021, although without stock buybacks, there may be no willingness to give guidance to investors.

For the Schwabs, BlackRocks (NYSE:BLK) and names like Goldman and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), we get to see how further credit market improvements over the third quarter aided bond issuance, and how the robust capital market activity aided the capital-market-sensitive returns for the big banks.

Ed Yardeni (cut and pasted from his blog) starts us off with his view of what’s expected for credit:

“Financials: Reality Check Coming. Financials has been one of the S&P 500’s worst-performing sectors this year, battered by a flat yield curve, surging loan losses, and a regulator that’s prohibiting the payment of dividends and stock buybacks. Next week, as banks’ Q3 earnings start rolling in, we’ll get a better feel for how well banks are reserved for loan losses. Many set aside billions of dollars for losses in Q2 as Covid-19 descended. Given the poor performance of bank stocks, investors may already have priced in banks’ need to continue building reserves in Q3.

The S&P 500 Financials sector’s stock price index has barely rebounded from the market’s March selloff, while the S&P 500 Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have hit new highs. Here’s the performance derby for the S&P 500 and its sectors ytd through Tuesday’s close: Information Technology

Spain's Rafael Nadal plays a shot against Argentina's Diego Schwartzman in the semifinal match of the French Open tennis tournament at the Roland Garros stadium in Paris, France, Friday, Oct. 9, 2020. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)

Michel Euler/Associated Press

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will meet for the ninth time in a Grand Slam final Sunday at the 2020 French Open. 

The two legendary players have not met in a title clash at a major since the 2019 Australian Open. Most of their head-to-head showdowns in Grand Slam finals occurred at the start of their reigns atop the men’s game alongside Roger Federer.  

Nadal is chasing after his 20th overall major and 13th crown on the clay at Roland Garros, while Djokovic is trying to capture his second title in Paris and 18th overall major. 

As he typically does in Paris, Nadal dominated his first six matches on the path to the final, as he won every set. 

Djokovic faced more difficulties in the previous two rounds, and he will enter at a disadvantage based off those recent struggles and Nadal’s career-long form on clay.

           

French Open Men’s Final Information

Start Time: 9 a.m. ET

TV: NBC

Live Stream: NBC Sports app or NBCSports.com

Prize Money: Winner earns $1.88 million

      

Prediction

Rafael Nadal over Novak Djokovic

All of the statistics in Nadal’s favor suggest the Spaniard will come away with his 13th Roland Garros title. 

Nadal is 17-7 against Djokovic on clay courts and 6-1 versus the Serbian at the French Open. 

Although the numbers are overwhelmingly in Nadal’s favor, he admitted that he must play a solid match against Djokovic, per ATPTour.com.

“The only thing I know is to play against Novak, I need to play my best. Without playing my best tennis, [the] situation is very difficult. I know that it’s a court that I have been playing well on for such a long time, so that helps. But at the same time, he has an amazing record here too. [He’s] one of the