The Weekly Breakout Forecast continues my doctoral research analysis on MDA breakout selections over more than 5 years. This subset of the different portfolios I regularly analyze has now reached 177 weeks of public selections as part of this ongoing live forward-testing research.
In 2017, the sample size began with 12 stocks, then 8 stocks in 2018, and at members’ request into 2020, I now generate 4 selections each week, 2 Dow 30 picks, and a separate article for monthly Growth & Dividend MDA breakout stocks. I now provide more than 6 different ways to beat the S&P 500 since my trading studies were made public.
Remarkably, the frequency streak of 10% gainers within a 4- or 5-day trading week remains at highly statistically significant levels above 80% not counting frequent multiple 10% gainers in a single week. More than 200 stocks have gained over 10% in a 5-day trading week since this MDA testing began in 2017. A frequency comparison chart is at the end of this article.
2020 YTD Breakout Portfolio Returns
The Breakout Picks are high volatility selections for short-term gains, but with no selections below $2/share, under 100k average daily volume, or less than $100 million market cap. The returns were at +41.50% in the first 9 weeks of 2020, consistent with exiting the portfolio following the negative Momentum Gauge signal of Feb. 24th (red weeks below).
The cumulative average returns YTD are at +220.42% compared to the S&P 500 +3.64% over the same period. The very best case perfectly timed returns at +440.5%, and in the worst case, fixed buy/hold, do nothing, equal-weighted average returns year to date, the returns are +0.33%.
So far YTD, 62 stock selections in the past 39 weeks have gained over 10% in less than 5 days with 32