Yesterday’s JOLTS report for August showed a jobs market that is still just beginning to mend. Hires were up, and layoffs and discharges were down, which is good, but job openings and voluntary quits both declined.

We are far enough along past the worst of the pandemic jobs losses that it is worthwhile to compare the state of the various JOLTS components with the two previous recoveries from recession bottoms in the series’ histories (this is because the JOLTS data only dates from 2001).

In the two past recoveries:

  • First, layoffs declined
  • Second, hiring rose
  • Third, job openings rose and voluntary quits increased, close to simultaneously

Let’s examine each of those in turn. In each case, I break out 2001-19 in a first graph and then this year in a second.

This first graph compares layoffs and discharges (blue) with the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (red):

Figure 1

You can see that, by the end of the recessions, layoffs were already declining and continued to decline steeply over the next 3-8 months before reaching a “normal” expansion level. The turning point coincides exactly with the much less volatile but more slowly declining level of initial jobless claims.

The same has been the case this year, as layoffs and discharges already declined to their “normal” level in May, while initial jobless claims peaked one to two months later and have been declining (slowly) ever since.

Next, here are hires (red) and job openings (blue):

You can see that actual hires started to increase one to two months before job openings.

This year, both made troughs in April, but hires rebounded sharply in May and June compared with job openings.

Finally, here are quits (green) vs. job openings (blue):

Actual hiring started to rise slightly before quits made a bottom.

Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc. SPWH has been struggling lately, but the selling pressure may be coming to an end soon. That is because SPWH recently saw a Hammer Chart Pattern which can signal that the stock is nearing a bottom.

What is a Hammer Chart Pattern?

A hammer chart pattern is a popular technical indicator that is used in candlestick charting. The hammer appears when a stock tumbles during the day, but then finds strength at some point in the session to close near or above its opening price. This forms a candlestick that resembles a hammer, and it can suggest that the market has found a low point in the stock, and that better days are ahead.

Other Factors

Plus, earnings estimates have been rising for this company, even despite the sluggish trading lately. In just the past 60 days alone 3 estimates have gone higher, compared to none lower, while the consensus estimate has also moved in the right direction.

Estimates have actually risen so much that the stock now has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) suggesting this relatively unloved stock could be due for a breakout soon. This will be especially true if SPWH stock can build momentum from here and find a way to continue higher of off this encouraging trading development. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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Sportsmans Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (SPWH):



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  • Despite September’s correction in the stock market, the long-term technical setup for further upside is intact heading into the November election, according to Bank of America.
  • Based on a completed “cup and handle” technical analysis pattern, the S&P 500 could rise to 3,700 to 4,300, representing potential upside of 12% to 30% from Friday’s close, BofA said.
  • Encouraging margin debt data suggests that the current market sell-off is a seasonal correction, and not a long-term top, according to BofA.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

The September correction in the stock market should be viewed as a seasonal correction, and not as a long-term top, according to Bank of America.

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In a technical analysis note on Monday, BofA said investors should continue to hold on for potential upside in the S&P 500 heading into the November election.

Specifically, a completed “cup and handle” pattern suggests the S&P 500 could rise to 3,700, representing potential upside of 12% from Friday’s close. Additionally, a longer-term target of 4,300 is also derived from the technical analysis pattern, representing 30% upside from Friday’s close.

“SPX 4300 is an aspirational upside count, but one that is achievable based on the bullish breakout, positive backdrop signals and our secular bull market roadmap,” BofA said.

A cup and handle is a bullish continuation pattern that is best defined as a sell-off in a security, followed by a recovery back to the highs seen prior to the sell-off, followed by a mild correction. From there, the security is set to move higher if it breaks above the handle correction level.

Read More:  UBS: Buy these 23 stocks across major themes that are poised to outperform amid uncertainty and conflicting signals in the market 

In this case, the highs seen in February, the

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