FILE PHOTO: the sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S. November 24, 2019. Picture taken November 24, 2019.REUTERS/Angus Mordant

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil settled above $43 a barrel on Thursday on support from output shutdowns ahead of a storm in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and the possibility of supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Norway.

Markets rose sharply at noon on a Dow Jones report that Saudi Arabia is considering reversing course over OPEC’s planned production increase early next year.

Brent crude settled up $1.35, or 3.2% to $43.34, after falling 1.6% on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added $1.24 cents, or 3.1%, to $41.19 after falling 1.8% on Wednesday.

Oil also gained support from the prospect of more production outages in the North Sea because of a workers’ strike. Oil firms and labor officials said they will meet with a state-appointed mediator on Friday in an attempt both sides hope will bring an end to a strike that threatens to cut Norway’s oil and gas output by some 25%.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has been challenged by rising output in Libya, an OPEC member exempted from cutting output, as well as an increase in coronavirus cases in many areas of the world.

“If true, the Saudis’ decision rewards the cheaters in OPEC while acknowledging the demand challenges that are still here,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

“This potential extension of the cuts is definitely a positive for the markets and maybe provides the seasonal bottom that is happening anyway,” he said.

The market has also drawn support from Hurricane Delta, which is forecast to intensify into a powerful, Category 3 storm in the

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S. November 24, 2019. . REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil rose to more than $43 a barrel on Thursday on support from output shutdowns ahead of a storm in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and the possibility of supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Norway.

Markets rose sharply at noon on a Dow Jones report that Saudi Arabia is considering reversing course over OPEC’s planned production increase early next year.

Brent crude rose $1.13, or 2.7% to $43.12 at 12:20 EDT (1515 GMT), after falling 1.6% on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added 99 cents, or 2.5%, to $40.94 after falling 1.8% on Wednesday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has been challenged by rising output in Libya, an OPEC member exempted from cutting output, as well as an increase in coronavirus cases in many areas of the world.

“If true, the Saudis’ decision rewards the cheaters in OPEC while acknowledging the demand challenges that are still here,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

“This potential extension of the cuts is definitely a positive for the markets and maybe provides the seasonal bottom that is happening anyway,” he said.

The market has also drawn support from Hurricane Delta, which is forecast to intensify into a powerful, Category 3 storm in the Gulf Coast. Nearly 1.5 million barrels of daily output was halted.

“Hurricane Delta is a crude oil supply event, and with all of this Gulf of Mexico production offline, we will probably lose more than 5 million barrels of crude oil due to the storm,” said Andrew Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston, Texas.

OPEC expects the number of cars on the roads in India to jump by more than five times by 2045 and, along with a similar increase in China, be one of the major drivers of rising oil demand


XAVIER GALIANA

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The coronavirus crisis has sparked talk that the world might have reached peak oil demand but the OPEC cartel sees crude consumption continuing to grow during the next quarter century, driven in large part by greater use of cars in developing countries.

In its latest forecasts, released Thursday, OPEC sees surprisingly little long-term impact despite the coronavirus pandemic plunging the global economy and oil demand into a tailspin.

While the pace of economic recovery will dictate how fast oil consumption rebounds, even OPEC’s scenario of a slow healing sees an eventual return to increased demand.

“At the global level, oil demand is expected to increase by almost 10 mbd (million barrels per day) over the long-term, rising from 99.7 mbd in 2019 to… 109.1 mbd in 2045,” the cartel said in its latest World Oil Outlook.

This baseline scenario represents 9.4 percent growth from pre-coronavirus consumption levels.

Under its slow growth scenario, OPEC expects 5.0 percent growth in oil demand.

And even with fast adoption of green technologies and tougher climate change policies, the cartel still sees a 3.1 percent increase in consumption.

OPEC’s forecast contrasts with that of some industry players, including major oil firms such as BP, which in its latest long-term estimates predicted that oil demand had already peaked or would soon do so thanks to increased use of renewable energy and the impact of the coronavirus.

Yet even the cartel’s forecasts reveal the impact of the changes already underway in certain regions.

It sees oil demand as having

The world’s appetite for crude oil won’t reach its apex for another two decades, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Thursday, offering a much more optimistic view of the world’s post-coronavirus demand for oil than many other forecasts.

In its annual report on oil’s long-term future, OPEC forecast that global oil demand will keep rising until around 2040, when it will plateau at 109.3 million barrels a day—some 10% above its 2019 level.

The annual report from the Vienna-based cartel offers a far brighter future for the supply and demand of oil and gas than the one offered last month by oil giant

BP


BP 0.59%

PLC. The British company is planning to invest heavily in renewable energy over the coming years. Oil demand may already have peaked, it said in September.

Still, OPEC said demand for crude among the relatively wealthy nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development won’t grow any further and is forecast to drop 27% from 2019 levels in the period to 2045. Speaking at a virtual press conference, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo described “an evolutionary shift in demand from developed to developing countries.”

The cartel’s global 2040 demand figure was more than one million barrels a day below last year’s forecast of 110.6 million barrels a day. The coronavirus outbreak “resulted in the sharpest downturn in energy and oil demand in living memory” and led to “the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression,” the report said.

Lockdowns and travel restrictions linked to the pandemic’s restrictions resulted in oil market convulsions this year. Forecasters such as OPEC have found it increasingly difficult to predict the short-term future for the amount of energy the world will need this year and next. It will be 2022 before oil demand returns to its

By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Thursday as rising coronavirus cases dampened the demand outlook, with further price pressure from a rise in OPEC output last month, though losses were capped by renewed hopes for U.S. fiscal stimulus.

Brent crude <LCOc1> futures fell 17, or 0.4%, to $42.13 a barrel by 0818 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude <CLc1> futures were down 22 cents, or 0.6%, at $40.

“It has become evident that the virus has not been contained. Infection rates are going up, the global death toll has surpassed the 1 million mark and the world is becoming a gloomy place once again,” said PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga.

In the United States alone the pandemic has infected more than 7.2 million and killed more than 206,000.

Increasing oil supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also weighed on the market, with output in September up 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) from August, a Reuters survey found.

The rise was largely on the back of higher supplies from Libya and Iran, both exempt from an oil supply pact between OPEC and allies led by Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+.

“Increasing supplies from OPEC+ will be risking the rebalancing effort as the market is still grappling with weak demand,” ANZ Research said.

Prices received some respite from progress in U.S. talks on a stimulus package for the world’s biggest economy.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has proposed a new stimulus package worth more than $1.5 trillion.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin earlier said that talks with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had made progress on COVID-19 relief legislation, and the House of Representatives postponed a vote on a $2.2 trillion Democratic coronavirus plan to allow more time to agree a bipartisan