(Bloomberg) — The dollar may tumble to its lows of 2018 on the rising likelihood of Joe Biden winning the U.S. election and progress on a coronavirus vaccine, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“The risks are skewed toward dollar weakness, and we see relatively low odds of the most dollar-positive outcome — a win by Mr. Trump combined with a meaningful vaccine delay,” strategists including Zach Pandl wrote in a note Friday. “A ‘blue wave’ U.S. election and favorable news on the vaccine timeline could return the trade-weighted dollar and DXY index to their 2018 lows.”



chart, histogram: Hedge funds turned bearish on the greenback for first time since 2018 in August


© Bloomberg
Hedge funds turned bearish on the greenback for first time since 2018 in August

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index has fallen almost 3.5% this year — trading just over the 93 level on Monday — as investors reacted to unprecedented pandemic-related monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve and rock-bottom interest rates. The gauge traded below 89 in 2018, a level which would imply a further slide of more than 4%.

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Goldman joins the likes of UBS Asset Management and Invesco Ltd. in predicting a weaker dollar as Biden extends his lead over President Donald Trump with less than three weeks to election day. It recommends investors short the dollar against a volatility-weighted basket consisting of the Mexican peso, South African rand and Indian rupee.

The strategists also suggest buying the euro, Canadian and Australian dollars against the greenback. The firm is keeping open long recommendations for the yuan through unhedged Chinese government bonds.

“The wide margin in current polls reduces the risk of a delayed election result, and the prospect for near-term vaccine breakthroughs may provide a backstop for risky assets,” they wrote.

Read more: Trump-Biden Volatility Is Giving Traders Butterflies: QuickTake

(Updates pricing in third paragraph.)

For more

Jockey John Velazquez riding Authentic gallops to the finish line to win the 146th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2020, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

In a matter of hours, the Preakness Stakes will bring down the curtain on the 2020 Triple Crown season.

Race organizers were probably bemoaning their bad luck as the Kentucky Derby unfolded. Authentic not only derailed Tiz the Law’s Triple Crown quest but also gave the Belmont Stakes winner little reason to make the trip to Baltimore.

Tiz the Law isn’t running in the Preakness, with his team instead focusing on the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November. That leaves Authentic as the clear favorite in the 11-horse field.

                       

Post Positions

  • 1. Excession (30-1)
  • 2. Mr. Big News (12-1)
  • 3. Art Collector (5-2)
  • 4. Swiss Skydiver (6-1)
  • 5. Thousand Words (6-1)
  • 6. Jesus’ Team (30-1)
  • 7. Ny Traffic (15-1)
  • 8. Max Player (15-1)
  • 9. Authentic (9-5)
  • 10. Pneumatic (20-1)
  • 11. Liveyourbeastlife (30-1)

Odds courtesy of the Preakness Stakes.

                  

Race Predictions

  • Win: Authentic ($900,000)
  • Place: Ny Traffic ($300,000)
  • Show: Thousand Words ($165,000)

           

As the odds illustrate, Authentic and Art Collector are commanding the lion’s share of attention heading into the race.

In addition to his Derby triumph , Authentic reeled off victories in the Sham, San Felipe and Haskell Stakes while running second to Honor A. P. in the Santa Anita Derby. Art Collector took first place in both of his graded stakes events this year (Blue Grass Stakes and Ellis Park Derby).

If recent history is any indicator, though, the likelihood of those two going first and second is slim.

The length of the race is likely one reason for

Jockey John Velazquez riding Authentic, right, crosses the finish line to win the 146th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2020, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The 2020 Preakness Stakes will be held Saturday without spectators at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore to close out an unprecedented Triple Crown season.

Authentic returns after winning the Kentucky Derby in early September. A rematch with Tiz the Law won’t happen Saturday, however, as the Belmont Stakes winner’s connections have instead pointed their colt toward the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November.

It’s still a talented field of three-year-old contenders with several legitimate challengers to Authentic. Let’s check out all of the key information for race day followed by a preview of the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.

          

Key Information

Where: Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland

When: Saturday, Oct. 3 at 5:45 p.m. ET

Watch: NBC

Live Stream: NBC Sports Live

Prize Money: $1 million purse

         

Field and Odds

1. Excession: 30-1

2. Mr. Big News: 12-1

3. Art Collector: 5-2

4. Swiss Skydiver: 6-1

5. Thousand Words: 6-1

6. Jesus’ Team: 30-1

7. Ny Traffic: 15-1

8. Max Player: 15-1

9. Authentic: 9-5

10. Pneumatic: 20-1

11. Liveyourbeastlife: 30-1

Betting lines via the Preakness’ official website.

         

Race Preview

Authentic is the rightful Preakness favorite after an impressive showing in the Derby that saw him keep Tiz the Law, and the rest of the field, at bay for the entire stretch run.

It was his second straight terrific performance after a similarly dominant effort in July’s Haskell Stakes, which suggests he’s peaking at the perfect time and could join Tiz the Law as a Breeders’ Cup Classic contender with another strong showing in the Preakness.

In all, he’s won five of his six career starts, but Saturday’s Triple Crown finale likely won’t be a runaway.

Art Collector arrives off back-to-back impressive wins in the Blue Grass Stakes and Ellis Park Derby,