TOKYO – The dollar flirted with three-week lows on Tuesday as investors stuck to hopes that there will be large U.S. fiscal stimulus after the Nov. 3 election to shore up a pandemic-hit economy, supporting riskier currencies.

The dollar index stood at 93.036, just above Friday’s near-three-week low of 92.997. The euro traded at $1.1841, having gained 0.60% on Monday.

“It seems there is a strong optimism that eventually there will be stimulus. It is hard to argue against fiscal expansion given the coronavirus epidemic is almost like a natural disaster,” said Makoto Noji, chief currency and foreign bond strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.


While markets are getting sceptical about the chances of having a bipartisan package before the election, a widening lead by Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden over President Donald Trump is leading investors to expect big stimulus after the election.

A Biden victory is also seen as negative for the dollar partly because his pledge to hike corporate tax would reduce returns from investments in the United States.

The dollar flirted with three-week lows on Tuesday as investors stuck to hopes that there will be large U.S. fiscal stimulus after the Nov. 3 election to shore up a pandemic-hit economy, supporting riskier currencies. (iStock)

Thus the dollar also weakened against currencies that are deemed “safer” – those that tend to have small or inverse relations with risk sentiment – such as the yen and the Swiss franc.

The yen strengthened to 105.34 per dollar while the Swiss franc traded at 0.9102 to the dollar, near its highest in three weeks.

Sterling traded above the key $1.30 level as hopes for a Brexit deal offset concerns about pressure

(Reuters) – Global stocks scaled five-week highs Monday on hopes that more government stimulus would come and that the world economy was on the mend, while the Chinese yuan retreated from a 17-month high after a policy move over the weekend. Investor optimism that Washington will work through talks that have repeatedly stalled to deliver another round of fiscal stimulus drove major U.S. stock indices to highs last seen in early September. Hopes that the top Wall Street banks will announce a decent set of third-quarter earnings this week that show business was not as weak as feared also helped, while excitement over an expected debut of Apple Inc’s latest iPhone on Tuesday buoyed technology stocks. Slugged by stronger investor demand for risk, the U.S. dollar was pinned near a three-week low and gold, another safe-haven asset, stayed below a three-week high. The U.S. bond market is closed on Monday for Columbus Day. The cheer over the economic outlook and government stimulus did not boost oil prices, which dropped as investors focused on a boost in supply. The S&P 500 jumped 57 points, or 1.64%, to 3,534.22, within spitting distance of its record high of 3,580.84 struck on Sept. 2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 250 points, or 0.88%, to 28,837.52.

Shares in Apple surged 6.4% while those in Amazon rallied 4.8% ahead of its Prime Day shopping event on Oct. 13 and 14. That helped the Nasdaq Composite to stage its biggest one-day rally in a month, jumping 296 points, or 2.56%, to 11,876.26.

“The market leaders are once again the tech names, supported by the fact that the economy continues to expand,” said Phil Blancato, chief executive of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management in New York. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe climbed 1.43% to 592.96, a

WASHINGTON/LONDON (Reuters) – The international community must do more to tackle the economic fallout of the COVID-19 crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Monday, publicly calling on the World Bank to accelerate its lending to hard-hit African countries.

FILE PHOTO: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during a conference hosted by the Vatican on economic solidarity, at the Vatican, February 5, 2020. REUTERS/Remo Casilli

Some of the key events of the virtual and elongated annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank take place this week, with the most pressing issue how to support struggling countries.

“We are going to continue to push to do even more,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said during an online FT Africa summit.

“I would beg for also more grants for African countries. The World Bank has grant-giving capacity. Perhaps you can do even more… and bilateral donors can do more in that regard,” Georgieva said in an unusual public display of discord between the two major international financial institutions.

No immediate comment was available from the Bank.

Georgieva last week said the IMF had provided $26 billion in fast-track support to African states since the start of the crisis, but a dearth of private lending meant the region faced a financing gap of $345 billion through 2023.

The pandemic, a collapse in commodity prices and a plague of locusts have hit Africa particularly hard, putting 43 million more people at risk of extreme poverty, according to World Bank estimates. African states have reported more than 1 million coronavirus cases and some 23,000 deaths.

G20 governments are expected to extend for six months their Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) which has so far frozen around $5 billion of poorer countries’ debt payments, but pressure is

By Aftab Ahmed and Manoj Kumar

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India on Monday announced steps to stimulate consumer demand, including advance payment of a part of the wages of federal government employees during the festival season and more capital spending as it tries to bolster the pandemic-hit economy.

The government will allow its employees to spend tax-exempt travel allowances on goods and services, Nirmala Sitharaman, India’s finance minister told a news briefing.

She said the government will also shore up investment by spending extra 250 billion rupees ($3.41 billion)on roads, ports and defence projects, and offering 120 billion rupees in interest-free 50-year loans to state governments for spending on infrastructure before March 31,2021.

“All these measures are likely to create an additional demand of 730 billion rupees ($9.96 billion),” Sitharaman said, adding the proposals would stimulate demand in a “fiscally prudent way.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, which imposed a tough lockdown to stem the spread of the coronavirus in March, is pushing ahead with a full opening to try to boost the economy ahead of the usually high-spending festival season, which runs from October to March.

The latest package would not require any extra borrowing by the federal government, Tarun Bajaj, economic affairs secretary at the Ministry of Finance, told reporters.

India’s federal government said last month it would stick to revised borrowing target of 12 trillion rupees ($163.78 billion) in the current fiscal year ending March, against an earlier estimate of 7.8 trillion rupees.

India’s total coronavirus cases have crossed 7.12 million, second only to the United States, with deaths reaching 109,150.

The Reserve Bank of India left key policy rates unchanged on Friday, while retaining an accommodative monetary stance to support an economy that is projected to contract by almost 10% in the current fiscal year.


Investment Thesis

Improving macro-economic indicators together with falling COVID-19 cases bode well for Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF (NYSEARCA: PAK). This upward trajectory in the economy is largely due to the reforms instituted by the incumbent government. Considering the current scenario coupled with other material events, PAK ETF is expected to perform better than its regional rivals.


Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF at the time of writing this article is trading at NAV of $27.87 per share with a Price-to-Earnings ratio of 8.82x and Price-to-Book Value ratio of 1.04x. In its recent performance, the ETF rose by 16.49 percent within the last three months.

Source: PAK ETF

Source: PAK ETF

On the risk side, the fund has the following risk stats:

Correlation of Pakistan Stock market with PAK ETF

As the above graph shows, this ETF has an extremely high correlation with the performance of the Pakistan Stock Market ((KSE-100 index)). The reason is that the major constituents of the KSE-100 index are also part of the holdings of this ETF. However, the breakdown in the correlation largely occurs due to foreign exchange movements.

Further, the following sectors are part of the KSE-100 index but they are not included in the holdings of PAK ETF.

  1. Tobacco
  2. Refinery
  3. Transport
  4. Telecommunications and Technology
  5. Chemical
  6. Food and Personal care products

The above sectors are not included because the companies that belong to these sectors have lower liquidity and market capitalization. Therefore, any activity or excitement in the share prices of the constituents of these sectors will also lower the correlation between the KSE-100 index and PAK ETF.

Correlation of Pakistan Stock market with the economy of Pakistan

Apart from the small percentage, the majority of the companies that are part of this ETF derive their demand from the economy of Pakistan. Therefore,