After trading around the $40 per barrel level since early June, the NYMEX crude oil futures market has been spending more time below the pivot point than above since early September.

While inventories have declined and production is lower worldwide, the coronavirus continues to threaten demand for the energy commodity. Seasonality is also weighing on the price as we move towards the coldest period of the year in the northern hemisphere. Crude oil and product demand tend to decline during the winter months.

On the continuous NYMEX crude oil futures contract, technical support stands at the low from the week of September 8 at $36.13. Last week, the price traded to a low of $36.63 per barrel. Below there, the next level of support is at the mid-June low of $34.36 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the US election is now less than one month away. The contest is, among many things, a referendum on the future of US energy production. Over the past years, the US became the world’s leading producer of crude oil and natural gas. The potential for a significant shift in policy starting in 2021 could cause lots of volatility in the crude oil futures market over the coming weeks.

The ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) and its bearish counterpart the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO) are leveraged products that move higher and lower with a portfolio of NYMEX crude oil futures contracts.

The weak season could send the price for a test between $30 and $35 per barrel

The winter months can be a bearish time for the oil market. Gasoline demand tends to decline during the coldest months of the year. During challenging periods, oil tends to drop during the later months.

Source: CQG

As the chart highlights, oil continued to fall in

a group of people in a store: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

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Joe Raedle/Getty Images

  • Business Insider looked at the job losses and gains from February to September among industries.
  • Industries with the biggest drops in employment from February to September tended to pay lower wages, while high-wage industries were close to their pre-pandemic employment levels. 
  • This change in employment is similar to changes between February and July and February and August, showing that recovery has been slow for many industries.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its September employment figures on Friday. Although 661,000 jobs were added last month, many industries are still below their pre-pandemic employment levels.


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The recovery since major drops in the spring has not been equal across sectors. The economic recovery in the US instead seems to look more like a K, where more affluent Americans are recovering faster than others. The Washington Post wrote that white-collar jobs have mainly rebounded from their job losses.

To get a sense of the unequal recovery in the summer, Business Insider looked at the percent change in employment in detailed industries from February 2020 to September 2020, along with pre-pandemic wages from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ May 2019 estimates. 

The following chart highlights the differences in industries returning to pre-pandemic employment levels. Based on the chart, a few subsectors that typically pay more are already back or close to their pre-pandemic levels, such as securities and other financial investments. Low-paying jobs tend to still be below their pre-pandemic levels. 

Jay Denton, senior vice president of business intelligence and chief innovation officer at ThinkWhy, told Business Insider that although retail overall seems to be one of the industries recovering well, the subsectors show that recovery is unequal. For instance, employment in clothing and clothing accessory

By Marwa Rashad and Davide Barbuscia

RIYADH/DUBAI (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia plans to cut spending by 7.5% in next year’s budget to 990 billion riyals ($263.94 billion) but expects the economy to return to growth as its management of the coronavirus crisis improves, a preliminary budget statement showed.

The projected retrenchment in spending comes as the world’s largest oil exporter faces an economic contraction caused by the pandemic, a drop in oil prices, and crude production cuts, and follows a significant drop in revenue this year.

Riyadh expects a 12% budget deficit for 2020, falling to 5.1% next year, the document published on Wednesday showed.

Spending is expected to decrease to 955 billion riyals and 941 billion riyals in 2022 and 2023, respectively, with the deficit shrinking to 3% and 0.4% in those two years. Spending this year is estimated at 1.07 trillion riyals.

“The fact that spending is expected to fall further over the next few years suggests that, despite policymakers’ recent suggestions that they are looking at all measures to boost the economic recovery, this is unlikely to involve rowing back on recent fiscal austerity,” said Jason Tuvey, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

For Mazen al-Sudairi, head of research at Al Rajhi Capital, the government must depend on other means to shore up the economy, “and probably the role of PIF in supporting local economy will increase,” he said, referring to Saudi Arabia’s sovereign fund, Public Investment Fund.

Saudi Arabia said it was committed to achieving the goals outlined in Vision 2030 – a reforms scheme aimed at diversifying the economy away from oil revenues – but that programs under the vision would undergo “structural improvements” and would be reprioritized to spur growth.

The economy is expected to shrink by 3.8% this year, the budget document