Shares of Netflix (NFLX) – Get Report were higher Wednesday after the media-streaming major’s price target was raised to a Wall Street high $650 from $600 at Pivotal Research with a buy rating.
The new target indicates 28% potential upside from the stock’s Tuesday closing price. The stock recently was 3.1% higher at $521.50.
Netflix is in the middle of a “virtuous cycle” of subscribers paying for the company’s spending on new content, and that new content subsequently brings in more subscribers, Pivotal analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said in the note.
This cycle should help Netflix “remain as the dominant subscription-video-on-demand player for the foreseeable future,” Wlodarczak said.
Competition has increased as Comcast (CMCSA) – Get Report launched the Peacock streaming network and, to a lesser extent, from HBO Max (T) – Get Report and the return of sports, the analyst said.
“As NFLX continues to gain scale and invest in ever more
compelling programming, we expect further material price increases, while also still
substantial increases in subscriber totals and eventually a rapid expansion in NFLX
profitability reaching an ultimate about 35% [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] margin by 2026,” Wlodarczak said.
The note does warn that Netflix has $20 billion in content commitments made under self-produced content, with significant free-cash-flow losses, including a $2.5 billion projected free cash flow loss in 2020.
In addition, other content companies, like Amazon (AMZN) – Get Report and Apple (AAPL) – Get Report, could get far more aggressive in their show offerings.
“In our view AMZN represents the largest competitive threat to NFLX, offset by
the reality that at AMZN/NFLX price points the two players can coexist,” the analyst said.
“Competition from ad-supported live-streaming players does not appear to be a threat to NFLX in our view.”