U.S. consumer prices are expected to rise in September for a fourth consecutive month following a sharp drop at the height of pandemic lockdowns. The Covid-19 recession has scrambled prices for an array of goods and services, but overall inflation pressures are expected to remain muted, allowing the Federal Reserve to keep its easy-money policies in place.
The International Monetary Fund releases forecasts for global economic growth that are expected to show a less-severe contraction in 2020 than initially anticipated. The latest outlook report comes as finance ministers and central bankers gather virtually for the IMF and World Bank’s annual meetings, which are often catalysts for global responses to crises but are unlikely to spark unified action against the Covid-19 recession this year.
U.S. jobless claims have remained stubbornly high in recent weeks, a sign layoffs are still elevated even as the overall economy adds jobs. Figures for the week ended Oct. 10 are expected to show a slight decline in new applications for benefits from the previous week—though not nearly enough of a drop to change the picture of continued economic disruption.
European Union leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to take stock of Brexit negotiations. The EU and U.K. face a Dec. 31 deadline to finalize terms for the breakup or face new barriers to trade and heightened economic disruption. The sides remain at odds on issues including appropriate levels of state aid, fishing rights and new U.K. legislation that appears to breach terms of a withdrawal agreement.
U.S. retail sales are expected to advance in September for a fifth consecutive month, underscoring a strong rebound in consumer spending on goods. Another month of job creation should help support gains, while the expiration of supplemental federal unemployment benefits and other support programs could weigh on some consumer outlays.
U.S. industrial production has recovered some of the output lost during pandemic-related lockdowns. That is likely to continue in September, though at a slower pace than earlier in the recovery, echoing other data showing the economy—while growing—is losing some momentum.
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