Oct 6 (Reuters) – The Thai baht’s resurgence this week has wrong-footed bears focused on domestic political unrest and weak prospects for its tourism-reliant economy , and further gains are likely as a new finance minister takes the helm.
An Oct 1 Reuters FX positioning poll showed investors turning bearish on the THB , but the currency has rallied 1% versus the USD since Friday, and could appreciate further. USD/THB broke below its 200-day moving average and Ichimoku cloud support zone on Monday. The next sell signal would be entry into the Bollinger downtrend channel at 31.20.
The move was driven by a bounce in risk assets on news of U.S. President Trump being discharged from hospital after receiving COVID-19 treatment . But the appointment of Thailand’s new finance minister also mattered .
Following the sudden resignation of his predecessor on Sept 1, the selection of transport minister and former state planning agency chief Arkhom Termpittayapaisith has helped restore some confidence as Thailand tackles its worst economic crisis in 22 years .
More fiscal stimulus could be on his agenda [nL3N2GK1XX]. While any positive measures may take time to materialize in economic data, for now, the charts say USD/THB bulls are looking long and wrong.
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(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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