a close up of a sign: A magnifying glass zooms in on the Occidental Petroleum (OXY) website.


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A magnifying glass zooms in on the Occidental Petroleum (OXY) website.

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) stock is down 16% in the past month and even over 75% in the year-to-date. OXY stock is wavering at 70% of its estimated $14.05 common stock tangible book value per share (TBVPS).




a close up of a screen: A magnifying glass zooms in on the Occidental Petroleum (OXY) website.


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A magnifying glass zooms in on the Occidental Petroleum (OXY) website.

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It’s likely that OXY stock will drift further down if oil does not rebound and if its TBVPS deteriorates. But in the near to long term, I believe that OXY stock will move higher as economic mobility increases.

In addition, as Covid-19 vaccines start to slow down the spread of the pandemic in 2021, the price of oil should rise. This will slowly push up OXY stock

Essentially, then, now is a good time to accumulate the stock, especially while it is selling below its TBVPS. I wrote about the calculation for TBVPS for OXY stock in my article last month and I wanted to update this analysis.

Estimating TBVPS Going Forward

Analysts expect the company to have another losing quarter in Q3. In Q2 Occidental lost $1.78 per share and its TBVPS fell from $23.93 per share to $14.79.

You can see the trend in the chart on the right. Note that TBVPS has been falling for the past several quarters. This tends to follow the company’s negative earnings per share in the past two quarters.




chart: 10-2-20 - OXY stock - History of TBVPS and EPS


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10-2-20 – OXY stock – History of TBVPS and EPS

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Source: Mark R. Hake, CFA

You can also see that analysts expect the company to lose money for the next four to six quarters. Therefore, the TBVPS should continue to fall. This chart