This column assumes that ETFs are the primary investment tool for the reader.

Please see my weekly market summation for a review of the macro-economic environment and general macro-level market trends.

Investment thesis: the macro-averages are now in a bullish posture; it’s a good time to take a new position. But be careful; defensive sectors are starting to rise, indicating traders are a bit more cautious.

Let’s start by looking at last week’s market activity, beginning with the treasury market:

TLT 5-day

The treasury market moved lower on Monday and then traded sideways for the rest of the week. Volatility was higher on late Tuesday and Wednesday as the market digested the whipsaw activity regarding additional fiscal measures. Also note the sharp sell-off and subsequent rally on Friday, likely due to additional fiscal talk.

SPY 5-day

SPY trended higher for the entire week as shown by the central tendency line in blue. t took the index an entire day to recover from Tuesday’s sell-off, but it did recover.

IWM 5-minute

I noted in my weekly round-up that smaller-caps led the market higher this week. Notice that IWM had a very strong move higher earlier in the week. This explains why small caps did so well last week.

Let’s pull the lens back to the 2-week time frame:

IEF 2-week

During the last two weeks, the treasury market has clearly trended lower, as shown by the 200-minute EMA (in magenta). The ETF has gapped lower twice and then consolidated sideways.

QQQ 2-week

While larger caps are higher, their respective charts are messier. QQQ – which has led the markets higher for most of the post-lockdown rally – is struggling. It’s also been prone to sharper, higher-volume sell-offs.

IJH 2-week

In contrast, smaller caps have stronger charts. Mid-caps have a solid uptrend

Oct 12 (Reuters) – Gold prices edged lower on Monday, after
hitting a three-week high earlier in the session, as the dollar
firmed and talks over a new U.S. stimulus package ran into


* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,925.29 per ounce by 0046
GMT, after hitting its highest level since Sept. 21 at $1,932.96
earlier in the session.

* U.S. gold futures were up 0.3% at $1,932.70.

* The dollar index was up 0.1% against rivals, making
gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. [USD/]

* The Trump administration on Sunday called on Congress to
pass a stripped-down coronavirus relief bill using leftover
funds from an expired small business loan program as
negotiations on a broader package ran into resistance.

* U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he had fully
recovered from COVID-19 and was not an infection risk for

* Britain will explore every avenue for a trade deal with
the European Union but progress to bridge significant gaps needs
to be made in the coming days, British Prime Minister Boris
Johnson told French President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday.

* Speculators increased their bullish positions in COMEX
gold and cut them in silver contracts in the week to Oct. 6, the
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

* Physical gold was sold at a premium in India last week for
the first time since mid-August as jewellers stocked up, hoping
key festivals would bring customers back to stores.

* Silver eased 0.4% to $25.02 per ounce, platinum
fell 1% to $876.80, and palladium was down 0.2% to

(Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi
((; Within U.S. +1 646 223
8780, Outside U.S. +91 80 6749 6131; Reuters Messaging:


The views and

(RTTNews) – Stocks moved mostly higher during trading on Friday, extending the upward move seen over the course of the two previous sessions. With the continued advanced, the major averages once again ended the session at their best closing levels in over a month.

The major averages all closed firmly positive, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed its counterparts. While the Nasdaq jumped 158.96 points or 1.4 percent to 11,579.94, the Dow climbed 161.39 points or 0.6 percent to 28,586.90 and the S&P 500 advanced 30.30 points or 0.9 percent to 3,477.13.

For the week, the Nasdaq soared by 4.6 percent, while the S&P 500 and the Dow surged up by 3.8 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.

Continued optimism about a new stimulus bill contributed to the strength on Wall Street, as traders kept a close eye on the latest developments in Washington.

The major averages showed a notable move to the upside in late morning trading after President Donald Trump suggested he was once again in favor of a broad relief package.

“Covid Relief Negotiations are moving along. Go Big!” Trump tweeted before later telling Rush Limbaugh he would like to see a bigger stimulus package than either the Democrats or Republicans are offering.

Trump’s comments came amid reports that the White House was planning to offer a $1.8 trillion package, which is up from the administration’s previous $1.6 trillion proposal but still below the $2.2 trillion bill passed by House Democrats.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s deputy chief of staff Drew Hammill later said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had “returned to the table with a proposal that attempted to address some of the concerns Democrats have.”

“Of special concern, is the absence of an agreement on a strategic plan to crush the virus,” Hammill tweeted. “For this and other provisions,

By Hari Kishan and Rahul Karunakar

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The recent surge in the U.S. dollar will last less than three months, according to a majority of foreign exchange strategists polled by Reuters who said the greenback would have a roller coaster ride in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election.

In September, the dollar rose more than 2% – its best monthly performance this year. But the greenback is still down more than 3% in 2020, a loss which was not expected to be recouped over the coming year, according to the Reuters poll of around 80 strategists taken between Sept. 28 and Oct. 5.

While last week’s ill-tempered debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden reinforced concerns the outcome of the Nov. 3 presidential election could be questioned and boosted the greenback, hopes for U.S. stimulus have had markets in the mood for riskier bets.

The expected pull and push in the currency market in the lead up to the election was underscored by the wide range of forecasts in the one-month-ahead predictions compared to the previous month.

While Trump’s positive test for COVID-19 and data on U.S. currency futures positions point to upside potential in the dollar’s recovery, nearly three-quarters of analysts, 54 of 75, in response to an additional question said the greenback’s recent surge would last less than three months.

That included 13 respondents who said the dollar’s run-up was already over, while the remaining 21 predicted it to run for over three months.

“The outlook for the next month or so is messy to be honest, because of the U.S. election… but the dollar will benefit from the ongoing political uncertainty in the next few weeks,” said Kit Juckes, head of FX strategy, at Societe Generale.

EUR/USD and U.S. Treasuries/German Bund

UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) “Universal Forest Products” is a commercial distributor of lumber and treated wood products. The company’s main business includes retail, industrial, and construction markets each with leading specialized brands. While there were some concerns during the early stages of the pandemic regarding the operating outlook, surprising strength in the retail segment with consumers pursuing home improvement projects supported better than expected Q2 earnings. We see UFPI continuing to benefit from strong trends in the U.S. housing market driving operational and financial momentum for the remainder of the year. Beyond uncertainties regarding the strength of the economic recovery, we like UFPI given its overall strong fundamentals and see value in shares at the current level.


UFPI Financials Recap

UFPI last reported its Q2 earnings on July 22nd with GAAP EPS of $1.08 which beat expectations by $0.48. Revenue of $1.24B billion was flat on a year over year basis but ahead of market estimates. The story here was exceptional trends in its retail segment where revenues climbed 22% y/y. The result helped balance a 27% y/y decline in its industrial business and 16% construction market which were more impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

(Source: Company IR)

It’s worth noting that UFPI counts on home-improvement retailers like Home Depot (HD) as major customers and these businesses were deemed essential during the pandemic allowing them to remain open. This is in contrast to the construction and industrial segment where customers shut down temporarily amid stay at home orders. Management highlights that the operating environment improved sequentially over the quarter through June setting up a stronger Q3 outlook.

(Source: Company IR)

In terms of financials, a higher gross margin at 16.5% compared to 15.1% in the period last year drove a higher operating income. While the company sources lumber