Stocks rose Thursday in a mixed market from a risk sentiment perspective. Economic momentum is on investors’ side, while election volatility is keeping interest in stocks at bay.
The S&P 500 rose 0.53%, partially powered by the gain on the tech components of the Nasdaq, which rose 1.42%. The 10-Year treasury yield was flat at 0.68%, after having risen. Inflation expectations of late have improved somewhat. That favors cyclical stocks, many of which are capture in the Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF (VOOV) – Get Report, which is up more than 3% in the past few days, after participating in September’s broad market sell-off.
On tech, FAANG earnings growth for the near-term is still premium compared to value stocks and if investors are willing to pay current multiples, these stocks can still outperform at least in the near-term and bring major indices higher with their outsized market caps.
Jobless claims came in at 737,000 for the past week, a meaningful drop-off from last week’s report of 773,000. This, coupled with other solid economic data points of late, points towards the continuation of the V-shaped economic and earnings recovery. Large cap consumer discretionary stocks rose, but other cyclical sectors like oil manufacturing were flat-to-down. Banks rose a few tenths of a percentage point. The yield curve is not expanding and loan demand has been weak of late, but banks are reducing their customer deposit rates as interest income is pressured, thereby upholding profitability.
Many on What Street say election risks are getting in the way of stock price momentum. Sure, corporate and individual taxes may rise with a Biden Presidency, but many are digesting that, absent a strong majority of Democrats in Congress rather than a slim one, policy changes cannot be so drastic, though they may be