Quiz: What’s one advantage the president has that the market does not?

Answer: He can get a doctor’s note telling you everything is wonderful. 

But investors? They’re left on their own, left trying to forecast when a stimulus bill will land, left watching every vaccine trial to spot a winner, left waiting up at night for earnings reports, and left tracking technical indicators for clues about what’s churning underneath the surface. 

Fortunately, investors do, however, have experts who can guide them. Helping us get through this messy, mucky October are Real Money and Real Money Pro writers Jim Cramer, Paul Price, Maleeha Bengali, Alex Frew McMillan, and Jim Collins.

Jim Cramer: Let’s Beat Covid-19

Cramer lays out what is happening right now to get the pandemic under control and what it will look like not that long from now — even before a vaccine is available.

Here’s the tests and therapies that Cramer contends will change the channel on the Covid outlook.

Price: Give Stocks a Second Chance 

Few stocks go up in straight-line moves. Instead, writes Price, most tend to spurt higher, tail off, then rise again. While the interim selloffs often shake out traders who mainly trade on momentum, plus those who fail to understand the companies’ true worth, there’s still opportunity awaiting for those willing to give second chances.

See how Price would play a select group of stocks — even following their earlier rebounds from March’s lows.

Jim Collins: There’s Trouble in Bubbleland 

We are in the midst of a unprecedented financial bubble, writes Collins. Will a recovery from the Covid-19 lockdowns ease the bubble before it bursts in our faces?

Read why Collins isn’t holding his breath, and how the situation could play out for insurers and others. 

Bengali: It’s Value Vs. Growth. Pick One.

DUBLIN, Oct. 13, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — The “Income Protection – United Kingdom (UK) Protection Insurance 2020″ report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com’s offering.

The report provides an in-depth assessment of the income protection market, looking at current and historical market sizes with regards to changes in contracts and premiums. It examines how income protection products are distributed and highlights key changes in the competitive landscape, as well as the proposition of the key market players. It provides five-year forecasts of contracts and premiums to 2024 and discusses how the market, distribution, and products offered are likely to change in the future, as well as the reasons for these changes.

The UK’s income protection market has grown strongly in recent years. Of the main protection products, income protection was the only product to register double-digit growth in premiums in 2019. Advised sales remain far more common than non-advised sales. However, the non-advice channel has experienced the fastest growth over recent years in terms of new business premiums.

Income protection providers face the prospects of increased claims due to job losses and increased illnesses as a result of COVID-19. As such, insurers have been forced to withdraw unemployment cover from the market and add exclusions to the wording of those policies that remain. The market is anticipated to plunge in 2020 before returning to growth. Financial hardship will highlight how vulnerable people are without a regular income, be it the result of unemployment or illness. This will generate strong demand for income protection products over the coming years.

Scope

  • New business premiums in the income protection market grew 18.3% to reach £65.5m in 2019, making it the only protection product to register double-digit growth by this measure.
  • Aviva strengthened its position as the largest provider of income protection insurance,

(RTTNews) – The China stock market has finished higher in back-to-back sessions, surging more than 140 points or 4.4 percent along the way. The Shanghai Composite Index now sits just beneath the 3,360-point plateau and it’s got a positive lead again for Tuesday’s trade.

The global forecast for the Asian markets is upbeat, with tech shares expected to lead the way higher. The European markets were mixed and the U.S. bourse were broadly higher and the Asian markets are tipped to follow the latter lead.

The SCI finished sharply higher on Monday following gains from the financials, properties and oil and insurance companies.

For the day, the index soared 86.39 points or 2.64 percent to finish at 3,358.47 after trading between 3,286.11 and 3,359.15. The Shenzhen Composite Index surged 73.40 points or 3.31 percent to end at 2,289.36.

Among the actives, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China climbed 1.02 percent, while Bank of China collected 0.62 percent, China Construction Bank jumped 1.47 percent, China Merchants Bank rallied 3.81 percent, Bank of Communications advanced 1.10 percent, China Life Insurance soared 4.48 percent, Ping An Insurance surged 3.80 percent, PetroChina gained 1.21 percent, China Petroleum and Chemical (Sinopec) added 0.76 percent, China Shenhua Energy increased 0.97 percent, Gemdale spiked 2.40 percent, Poly Developments accelerated 2.30 percent and China Vanke gathered 1.00 percent.

The lead from Wall Street is broadly positive as stocks moved sharply higher on Monday, extending the strong upward move seen in recent sessions and sending the major averages to their best closing levels in a month.

The Dow jumped 250.62 points or 0.88 percent to finish at 28,837.52, while the NASDAQ surged 296.32 points or 2.56 percent to end at 11,876.26 and the S&P 500 perked 57.09 points or 1.64 percent to close at 3,534.22.

Technology stocks led the

Despite a bleak macroeconomic picture, Indonesia’s non-life insurance market is well-diversified and underpinned by solid capitalisation, supporting a stable outlook assigned to the segment, according to a new AM Best report.

A new Best’s Market Segment Report, titled, “Market Segment Outlook: Indonesia Non-Life Insurance,” states that the non-life insurance market’s overall robust return on equity, supported by stable historical underwriting performance and strong balance sheet fundamentals, along with good government support including infrastructure plans and economic stimulus, are factors in the stable outlook.

The Indonesia non-life insurance market expanded by 14% year over year, to IDR 79.7 trillion (USD 5.4 billion) in 2019 from IDR 69.9 trillion (USD 4.9 billion) in the previous year, supported mainly by strong growth in credit insurance. Gross premium written (GPW) for credit insurance, the market’s third largest business line, increased by 86.2% to IDR 14.6 trillion in 2019. Property insurance, the largest business segment, also posted solid GPW growth of 9.7% to IDR 20.9 trillion. However, motor insurance GPW recorded muted growth of 0.3%.

AM Best believes that the non-life market in Indonesia benefits from a good business mix that will help to cushion any negative impact from the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike other markets, which feature motor and health as the largest lines of business, Indonesia’s non-life segment is dominated by property and motor insurance, while credit, personal accident and health lines account for significant portions of total non-life GPW. Collectively, these five lines make up over 80% of the country’s non-life insurance premiums.

However, the decline in economic activity has had a direct impact on the non-life insurance segment. Non-life GPW in the first half of 2020 declined by 6.1% year over year, with the steepest falls in premiums were seen in the property and motor lines of business. Property insurance GPW

The yield on Italian 10-year
TMBMKIT-10Y,
0.680%

and 30-year
TMBMKIT-30Y,
1.529%

debt fell to record lows on Monday.

As this chart from Deutsche Bank shows, the yield on the Italian 10-year is lower than it was even before Italy became a country. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid attached proxies for Italian debt, such as from Naples, to chart pre-1861 data. (There is also a gap in the data series for the 1700s.)

He also charted debt-to-gross-domestic-product, which shows the Italian economy with an all-time low capability to service that debt.

The move on Monday came after the European Central Bank’s chief economist gave an interview suggesting the central bank may take further action. Among the ECB’s actions stimulus so far is the purchase of government debt from countries including Italy, through what’s called the pandemic emergency purchase program.

“Has the ECB permanently suppressed yields and spreads or are there many more twists and turns to this story over the years ahead? I would lean towards the latter but for now Italian politics and their control of the second wave are acting as strengths and not weaknesses,” Reid said.

David Stockman, the former Reagan-era budget director and acerbic critic, looked at the same chart and issued this brief but withering analysis: “when central banks crush rates, politicians bury their governments in debts.”

The current explosion in debt-to-GDP has been because the latter dropped, precipitously. The Italian economy shrank by 18% year-over-year in the second quarter.

Italy also has been issuing more debt. According to Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy is forecast to issue a net €177 billion in new debt in 2020, compared with €54 billion in 2019.

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