Bitcoin weekly price chart

Bitcoin (BTC) has crossed into bullish territory with the biggest weekly gain in 2.5 months.

  • The top cryptocurrency by market value climbed nearly 6.6% in the seven days to Oct. 11, capping its biggest single-week percentage rise since the last week of July.
  • The flipping of the stiff resistance of $11,200 (Sept. 18) into support is bullish, according to Stack Funds research analyst Lennard Neo.
  • So far, however, the follow-through to the breakout has been poor: The cryptocurrency is currently trading in the red near $11,250, having printed highs near $11,500 over the weekend.
  • However, the pullback may be short-lived, miner outflows suggest.
  • Last week, bitcoin miners sold more than they generated and ran down inventory by around 1,000 BTC, according to data source Bytetree.com.
  • The miners’ rolling inventory (MRI) figure, which tracks the changes in how much bitcoin miners are holding, held well above 100% last week; the five- and 12-week MRIs are also above 100%.
  • Miners liquidate their holdings almost on a daily basis to cover operational costs but will offer more when they feel the market has the strength to absorb the additional coins without harming price.
  • As such, the increased miner outflow is sign of strength in the market, according to Charlie Morris, chief investment officer at ByteTree Asset Management.
  • Additionally, payment company Square’s recent disclosure of major bitcoin investments has given market players a fresh shot of confidence, Philip Gradwell, chief economist at the blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis, told CoinDesk.
  • The major portion of the last week’s 6.6% rise happened after Square announced its bitcoin investment on Thursday.
  • While the path of least resistance for bitcoin appears to be on the higher side, a move to the next major resistance at $12,000 may remain elusive if the resurgence of the coronavirus cases across Europe, tanks

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Southwestern Energy Co., natural gas production site


Julia Schmalz/Bloomberg

Natural gas prices could rocket higher this winter, and some producers could emerge from hibernation in much stronger shape.

Morgan Stanley analyst Mark Carlucci thinks

EQT

(EQT), the largest gas producer in the U.S., can do particularly well under those circumstances and he upgraded the shares to Overweight from Equal Weight in a note on Friday.

Southwestern Energy

(SWN), another gas producer, is also improving, and Carlucci upgraded its shares to Equal Weight from Underweight.

Natural gas prices have been depressed for years because there’s simply too much of it. Natural gas is a byproduct of oil production, and a boom in oil drilling in the U.S. has also led to an increase in natural gas supplies. But oil drilling has declined amid the pandemic and is likely in for a longer slump given depressed prices. So natural gas prices are back on the upswing. What’s more, the United States has been exporting a growing amount of gas in liquefied form, helping reduce the glut in the country. If more countries switch to natural gas from coal for electricity production, this trend could continue and even accelerate.

Some of that optimism about prices was already in the stocks, Carlucci says.

“However, as tailwinds build for potentially the tightest winter gas market of the past decade, near-term risk for equities now appears skewed to the upside,” he writes.

In fact, Carlucci thinks there’s a case for natural gas to rise as high as $5 per million British thermal units (BTU), which would be a remarkable increase given that it fell to $1.47 earlier this year, the lowest level in 25 years. Now, natural gas futures are trading around $2.76, up more than 20% on the year.

Investors appear wary of

Week In Review

  • The Wall Street Journal pointed out this Monday that China has steadily increased its purchases of US crude oil since May.
  • Bloomberg announced this Tuesday that Singaporean sovereign wealth funds, GIC and Temasek will participate in the Ant Group IPO, with the former reportedly making a $1 billion investment.
  • It was reported this Wednesday that over 400 million Chinese are vacationing domestically during the Golden Week holiday. Thus, it is no surprise that consumption plays are performing well this week.
  • On Thursday, Ping An Insurance-backed company Lufax Holdings filed for a New York Stock Exchange listing under the ticker LU.

Key News

Let’s not bury the lead: THE STRONGEST SINGLE DAY OF PERFORMANCE FOR THE RENMINBI VERSUS THE US DOLLAR IN 15 YEARS! The renminbi (RMB) moved $0.09 versus the USD last night! You might remember how China “devalued” its currency back in August 2015. Last night’s move was almost the same magnitude as 2015, but the other way around! Regardless, back then the headlines SCREAMED about the “devaluation” for weeks. Don’t get me wrong, Summer 2015 was awful as China’s Mainland stock market fell and then the currency drop left a Grand Canyon-sized wrinkle in between my eyebrows. However, with such a strong move to the upside, I would have expected at least a few headlines covering the RMB’s historic positive move last night… (For my friends in Europe & UK, the appreciation wasn’t as pronounced versus the Euro or Pound.)

While I have your attention, I will point out the growing disparity between MSCI’s
MSCI
definition of Chinese A-Shares and domestic indices such as the CSI 300. MSCI added mid-cap stocks to its definition of A-Shares in November 2019. My colleagues and I have been pounding the table about how the mid-caps gave MSCI’s

The Friday Market Minute

  • Global stocks press forward on U.S. stimulus hopes, with gains in Europe capped by a worrying surge in coronavirus infection rates.
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin will resume talks Friday, with President Trump pressing for stand-alone agreements versus the Democrats preference for a comprehensive relief bill.
  • European coronavirus infections are rising at record levels in many major economies as the autumn weather turns, but leaders are hoping to avoid sweeping lockdowns in the weeks ahead.
  • Oil prices on pace for a 10% week gain on supply outages and improving demand, while the dollar tumbles to a three-week low against a basket of its global peers.
  • U.S. equity futures suggest a firmer open on Wall Street, which is looking at its best five-day stretch since August, heading into the teeth of the third quarter earnings seasons next week.

U.S. equity futures edged higher Friday, while the dollar retreated to a three-week low and oil prices slipped, as investors consolidated gains from the best week on Wall Street since mid-summer and braced for what could be a game-changing series of events in the coming days.

With markets still clinging to hopes that House Democrats and their Republican rivals in the Senate can reach an agreement on a coronavirus relief bill in the final three weeks before the November Presidential elections, the S&P 500 has gained around 2.9% so far this week, building its advance around solid corporate sales updates, progress in coronavirus vaccine development and modestly improving jobs numbers.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin will continue their weeks-long negotiations Friday, with President Donald Trump pressing for a series of ‘stand alone’ stimulus deals instead of the comprehensive $2.2 trillion package preferred by Democrats.

The third quarter earnings season will unofficially

(Bloomberg) — China’s yuan strengthened and stocks rose on mainland exchanges in a positive start to the month for traders returning to work after an eight-day holiday.

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The currency advanced 1.1% as of 9:53 a.m. in Shanghai, tracking recent moves in the offshore rate. The People’s Bank of China set its yuan fixing at 6.7796 per dollar on Friday — or slightly stronger than expected — suggesting it will continue to allow for currency gains after the yuan had its best quarter since 2008 versus the greenback.

“Markets will take any indication that the authorities are not too concerned about the level of the yuan as a positive sign,” said Khoon Goh, head of research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “In effect, not sending a signal is in itself a signal.”

The Shanghai Composite Index of stocks rose 1.4% and the CSI 300 Index climbed 1.7%. China’s $9.4 trillion onshore equity market last traded on Sept. 30.



chart: China's yuan strengthens toward 6.7 per dollar


© Bloomberg
China’s yuan strengthens toward 6.7 per dollar

Solar and technology stocks were among the biggest gainers in early trade. Longi Green Technology Co. surged 9.3% to hit a record high. Lens Technology Co. rose 7.4% and GoerTek Inc. added 6.3%.

“Stocks are getting a boost from the better-than-expected consumption data during the Golden Week holidays and a strong yuan,” said Daniel So, strategist at CMB International Securities Ltd. “Investors are looking forward to the Communist Party meeting toward month-end, before which market sentiment has usually been positive, as more stimulus policies are expected.”

China is unique among major economies to close its financial markets for long periods several times a year. In February, stocks were hit by a ferocious wave of selling and the yuan weakened past a key level against the dollar, as a rapidly