OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada’s export development agency on Thursday predicted global growth of 6.6% in 2021 after a 4.3% decline this year amid the coronavirus pandemic, but said the domestic energy and tourism sectors would suffer.

Export Development Canada (EDC), in a semi-annual forecast, said Canada’s food, advanced technology, telecommunications, wood products and minerals sectors would do well next year.

The forecast is more gloomy for the energy sector. Canada is one of the world’s largest crude exporters and even before the coronavirus outbreak slashed demand, the sector had been struggling with low prices.

“Any economy … that is energy-dependent is facing difficulties,” EDC chief economist Peter Hall said by phone.

The forecast said ample supplies and uncertain growth would “keep the lid on” key commodity prices over the near-term.

In its overall forecast, EDC said restrictions imposed to combat the pandemic had helped build up global consumer demand as well as bank balances and savings rates.

“This suggests fundamental resilience, at the very least, (and) the potential to rebound from the current mess,” it said.

EDC forecast the Canadian dollar would stay in the 74 to 76 U.S. cent range this year and next.

(Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

Copyright 2020 Thomson Reuters.

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BEIJING (Reuters) – Activity in China’s factories extended solid growth in September as payrolls expanded for the first time this year and overseas demand surged, a private survey showed on Monday, adding further momentum to an economy recovering from the coronavirus crisis.

The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) barely budged from the previous month, down fractionally to 53.0 from August’s 53.1, with the gauge staying above the 50-level that separates growth from contraction for the fifth consecutive month.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the headline index to remain steady at 53.1.

China’s vast industrial sector is steadily returning to the levels seen before the pandemic paralysed the economy early this year. Pent-up demand, stimulus-driven infrastructure and surprisingly resilient exports have been the main drivers propelling the rebound.

“The recovery in manufacturing has maintained its momentum in the wake of the Covid-19 epidemic, with both the supply and demand surging,” Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, wrote in a note accompanying the Caixin survey release.

“The sharp rise in overseas demand has complemented the domestic market,” Wang said.

The Caixin survey showed total new orders recorded the strongest increase in September since January 2011, and the gauge for new export orders- which were hit hard by the global outbreak of the coronavirus – rose at the fastest pace in over three years.

Factory output softened slightly from August but remained strong, while input prices grew faster than prices charged, putting pressure on profit margins.

The Caixin survey focuses more on small and export-oriented firms while the official survey, also released earlier on Wednesday, largely tracks large companies and state-owned enterprises.

The private survey also showed Chinese factories expanded payrolls for the first time in ten months, although only slightly.

“However the job market remains worrisome, as the improvement