The forward 4-quarter estimate for the S&P 500 returned to its familiar pattern of sequentially moving higher this week, printing $156.08 vs. $155.98 last week. A small increase – yes – but still sequential improvement

Here is a picture of what the spreadsheet looks like tracking the IBES data by Refinitiv:

What fascinates me is that since July 1, only two weeks of the last 16 have seen sequential declines in the forward estimate.

Geeky data “stuff” but numbers tell a story.

  • The forward 4-quarter estimate improved sequentially to $156.08 from last week’s $155.98.
  • The forward PE is 22x.
  • The S&P 500 forward earnings yield fell a little bit this week to 4.49% from 4.64% last week.
  • The “average” expected calendar 2020 and 2021 S&P 500 EPS growth fell to 3.5% this week, from a long string of 4% prints. Let’s see what the next few weeks hold.
  • The “expected” 2021 EPS of $166.22 is still above the 2019 actual EPS of $162.93.

S&P 500 Forward earnings curve:

This week, note the “4-week rate of change”. The sequential increases continued this week, which is always a plus.

Looking at Next 4 Quarters’ Earnings and Revenue Growth:

Showing the same data from various perspectives helps the reader see the y/y change in EPS and revenue growth for the S&P 500.

Sector data will follow tomorrow.

EPS growth for Q3 ’20, Q4 ’20 and Q1 ’21 continue to slowly improve.

Let’s see what this table looks like next week after 15 financials report and readers can see what consumer and commercial credit losses look like.

This blog will have more on the Financial sector over the weekend.

Summary/conclusion: This weekly overview on the S&P 500 numbers – both expected EPS and revenue growth – shows that the positive trends remain in place,


How soon could your second stimulus check come? We lay out some possible dates, from when the bill is passed to when your money could actually arrive.

James Martin/CNET

Now that talks to pass new coronavirus relief legislation with a second stimulus payment have resumed, we can predict when eligible Americans may receive direct payments. If a new stimulus check is authorized, the priority group that you’re a part of and how fast the IRS can start sending out payments in general will determine how long it takes. (Here are some more important stimulus payment facts.)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi directed House Democrats to bring a new relief proposal that includes another stimulus check and other aid for airlines and restaurants to a vote as early as this week. She has also resumed talks with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. 

“We’re in a negotiation, and hopefully we’ll come to a bipartisan agreement that will remove all doubt that the legislation will pass and be signed by the President,” Pelosi said on MSNBC Tuesday.

CNET’s stimulus calculator can give you an estimate of how much you might qualify for —  read on to learn some potential timelines for when you might receive a new stimulus payment. We update this story frequently.

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Next stimulus checks: What to expect


When the IRS might possibly send the first checks to each group

When and if another stimulus check happens, Mnuchin has said it would take about a week to orchestrate the first payments. “I can get out 50 million payments really quickly. A lot of it into people’s direct accounts,” he said.

We’ve speculated potential dates based on calendars from the House of Representatives and the Senate, and also based on Pelosi’s vow to keep her chamber in