Volatility in emerging market currencies will not let up in the next six months as U.S. presidential election jitters mount and domestic economic growth tapers off, a Reuters poll of market strategists showed.

Most emerging market currencies were forecast to weaken or at best cling to a range over the next three to six months but will rise about 2% on average in a year, supported by a weaker dollar, the Sept. 28-Oct. 5 poll found.

Reuters surveys since the global shutdown in activity in March have been consistently concluding emerging market currencies will not recoup even half their coronavirus-induced 2020 losses within a year.

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Still, a steep dollar selloff, which just posted its worst quarter in three years as expectations for a swift recovery from the COVID-19 recession made investors exit safe havens, has helped currencies in less developed countries rise. That comes despite deep economic troubles from the pandemic.

Volatility in emerging market currencies will not let up in the next six months as U.S. presidential election jitters mount and domestic economic growth tapers off, a Reuters poll of market strategists showed. (iStock)

“EM currencies are running on empty without capital inflows or a resounding macro narrative. The large output gap and lower level of economic activity will have a disproportionately negative impact on currencies,” said Jason Daw, head of emerging markets strategy at Societe Generale.

“EM FX has tended to weaken in the lead up to and for several months after a challenger victory in the contest for the White House. A Democratic sweep, our central scenario, could result in weaker EM currencies.”

A Reuters/Ipsos poll on Sunday found 51% of voters were backing

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose about 2% on Monday, lifted by comments from doctors for U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting he could be discharged from hospital as soon as Monday, just a few days after his positive test for COVID-19 sparked widespread alarm.

Trump’s health update eased political uncertainty in global markets, pushing Brent up to $39.96 a barrel by 0232 GMT, gaining 69 cents or 1.8%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $37.81 a barrel, up 76 cents, or 2.1%.

Prices had slumped more than 4% on Friday amid uncertainty surrounding Trump’s health, adding to concern that rising coronavirus case numbers that could dampen global economic recovery.

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But analysts said Monday’s rebound was driven by an easing of the worst fears about Trump’s health condition, albeit clouded by some mixed signals.

“I think it’s the improving health of the U.S. President … over the weekend there were a lot of conflicting reports on his health, but generally he’s improving,” said Avtar Sandu, senior commodities manager at Phillip Futures.

Oil prices rose about 2% on Monday, lifted by comments from doctors for U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting he could be discharged from hospital as soon as Monday. (iStock)

“He could be back to work soon,” Sandu said, adding that investors were worried about the stalled U.S. fiscal stimulus plan which could aid oil demand recovery.

Prices were also supported by an expanding workers’ strike in Norway on Monday that could reduce the country’s production capacity by as much as 330,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) or 8% of its total output, according to the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association.

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