Quiz: What’s one advantage the president has that the market does not?

Answer: He can get a doctor’s note telling you everything is wonderful. 

But investors? They’re left on their own, left trying to forecast when a stimulus bill will land, left watching every vaccine trial to spot a winner, left waiting up at night for earnings reports, and left tracking technical indicators for clues about what’s churning underneath the surface. 

Fortunately, investors do, however, have experts who can guide them. Helping us get through this messy, mucky October are Real Money and Real Money Pro writers Jim Cramer, Paul Price, Maleeha Bengali, Alex Frew McMillan, and Jim Collins.

Jim Cramer: Let’s Beat Covid-19

Cramer lays out what is happening right now to get the pandemic under control and what it will look like not that long from now — even before a vaccine is available.

Here’s the tests and therapies that Cramer contends will change the channel on the Covid outlook.

Price: Give Stocks a Second Chance 

Few stocks go up in straight-line moves. Instead, writes Price, most tend to spurt higher, tail off, then rise again. While the interim selloffs often shake out traders who mainly trade on momentum, plus those who fail to understand the companies’ true worth, there’s still opportunity awaiting for those willing to give second chances.

See how Price would play a select group of stocks — even following their earlier rebounds from March’s lows.

Jim Collins: There’s Trouble in Bubbleland 

We are in the midst of a unprecedented financial bubble, writes Collins. Will a recovery from the Covid-19 lockdowns ease the bubble before it bursts in our faces?

Read why Collins isn’t holding his breath, and how the situation could play out for insurers and others. 

Bengali: It’s Value Vs. Growth. Pick One.

“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes

Stocks Are Very Expensive

The famous economist John Maynard Keynes recognized long ago that markets can deviate from their fundamental value for an extended period. His insight applies to U.S. equities today. As measured by the S&P 500, the broad-based market trades well above the historical average according to the 10-year cyclically adjusted P/E ratio. Stocks have been only before the 1929 and 2000 crashes more expensive than today.

Shiller CAPE

Source: Robert Shiller, Yale University, Online Data

Equities had an impressive bull run over the past decade. The Nasdaq 100 returned almost 20% p.a. That’s more than double the typical long-term total return that academics calculated from hundreds of years of cross-market data. Today’s market action is even more impressive if we put it into a historical perspective. The chart below compares today’s tech bull run to the stock market in the roaring twenties. Fears of excessive speculation by the Federal Reserve caused the Wall Street Crash of 1929 according to Wikipedia. The roaring twenties bull cycle lasted slightly less than 100 months and is depicted by the black time series. The period is iconic for a decade of wealth and excess. However, it looks pale and boring next to the Nasdaq 100 during the past decade.

Roaring Twenties vs Nasdaq 100

Bubble Characteristics

Excessive speculation is not an artifact of the past. It is among the major drivers of the rally this year. The chart below shows the amount of premium spent by retail traders on call options into the September selloff. Call options are among the most speculative investment vehicles and their demand skyrocketed during this year. The development is clear evidence for elevated risk-inclination among investors. Speculative bubbles can get quite exciting but are not sustainable. Fundamentals are not



Lloyd Blankfein wearing a suit and tie: Brendan McDermid/Reuters


© Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Brendan McDermid/Reuters

  • Goldman Sachs’ former CEO Lloyd Blankfein told CNBC on Thursday that a “wash of free money is clearly creating bubble elements in the markets.” 
  • The banking titan blamed low interest rates for creating free money for large investors. 
  • Blankfein also cited speculation in the growing SPAC market: “Look at SPACs and how much money  is available on the basis of somebody’s reputation as opposed to a business plan.”

Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein told CNBC on Thursday that a “wash of free money” due to low interest rates is “clearly creating bubble elements in the markets.”

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“Given that money is kind of free, it presumably is not being allocated in a disciplined way, and so there are bubble elements to this,” Blankfein said. “Look at the credit market — people are lending to what historically would have been weak credits for very little money.”

The banking titan also referred to the SPAC market as a sign that the market is taking on much speculation lately. In this year alone, about 110 blank-check firms led by notable investors like Chamath Palihapitiya and Bill Ackman have raised over $40 billion on public markets. That’s over $26 billion more than what last year’s SPACs raised.

Read more: Citi’s US equities chief warns of an ‘extreme peak’ in earnings revisions heading into the crucial reporting season — and explains why it makes stocks vulnerable to a pullback in the weeks ahead

“Look at SPACs and how much money  is available on the basis of somebody’s reputation as opposed to a business plan,” Blankfein said. 

The banking titan can be added to the growing list of investors voicing concerns about the speculative nature in markets. Last week, venture capitalist Bill Gurley said the stock market reminded

  • Goldman Sachs’ former CEO Lloyd Blankfein told CNBC on Thursday that a “wash of free money is clearly creating bubble elements in the markets.” 
  • The banking titan blamed low interest rates for creating free money for large investors. 
  • Blankfein also cited speculation in the growing SPAC market: “Look at SPACs and how much money  is available on the basis of somebody’s reputation as opposed to a business plan.”

Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein told CNBC on Thursday that a “wash of free money” due to low interest rates is “clearly creating bubble elements in the markets.”

“Given that money is kind of free, it presumably is not being allocated in a disciplined way, and so there are bubble elements to this,” Blankfein said. “Look at the credit market — people are lending to what historically would have been weak credits for very little money.”

The banking titan also referred to the SPAC market as a sign that the market is taking on much speculation lately. In this year alone, about 110 blank-check firms led by notable investors like Chamath Palihapitiya and Bill Ackman have raised over $40 billion on public markets. That’s over $26 billion more than what last year’s SPACs raised.

Read more: Citi’s US equities chief warns of an ‘extreme peak’ in earnings revisions heading into the crucial reporting season — and explains why it makes stocks vulnerable to a pullback in the weeks ahead

“Look at SPACs and how much money  is available on the basis of somebody’s reputation as opposed to a business plan,” Blankfein said. 

The banking titan can be added to the growing list of investors voicing concerns about the speculative nature in markets. Last week, venture capitalist Bill Gurley said the stock market reminded him of the dot-com bubble of the

  • A report by UBS analyzed price growth in 25 major urban housing markets around the world from the second quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020.
  • Of those markets, 7 are in bubble risk territory, per the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

On a global scale, the housing market has shown strength during the coronavirus pandemic, despite the economic downturn. 

A recent report by UBS identified three factors for its resilience.

First, as home prices are a backward-looking indicator of the economy, UBS said they therefore react with a delay to economic downturns. The number of transactions declined in most cities in the second quarter of 2020 compared with the previous year, “complicating price formation and reducing the validity of observed prices.”

Second, the majority of potential home buyers didn’t suffer direct income losses in the first half of 2020, UBS found. “Credit facilities for companies and short-time work schemes mitigated the fallout from the crisis, supporting employees’ housing affordability.”

And third, governments helped homeowners in many cities during the lockdown periods, with increased housing subsidies, lowered taxes, and suspension of foreclosure procedures.

The report analyzed annual house price growth rates in 25 major cities from 2001 through the second quarter of 2020. The markets in the study were Munich, Hong Kong, Zurich, Paris, Singapore, London, Geneva, Frankfurt, Stockholm, Vancouver, Milan, Toronto, Tel Aviv, Sydney, New York, Moscow, Amsterdam, Madrid, Tokyo, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, Warsaw, Dubai, and Chicago.

In 21 of those cities, price growth accelerated over the past four quarters, a trend that USB has called unsustainable. 

In fact, according to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index, seven of the cities in the analysis are in bubble-risk territory. 

Price growth rates recorded in the analysis are