The Monday Market Minute

  • Global stocks rally as China markets roar, investors extend stimulus bets heading into the U.S. earnings season.
  • Around 31 companies will report this week, including the country’s biggest banks, with analysts expecting third quarter profits to fall 21% from last year.
  • Apple unveils is new line-up of 5G phones on Tuesday, the same day that Amazon will launch its annual ‘Prime Day’ shopping event.
  • President Trump renews call for stimulus deal, but confusion grips talks as both sides play politics 22 days ahead of the November elections.
  • Europe records 100,000 daily coronavirus cases, the highest tally since the pandemic began, in what is likely to be an omen for a second U.S. wave as domestic weather cools.
  • U.S. equity futures suggest a firmer open on Wall Street, following its best five-day stretch since August, ahead of big bank earnings and key consumer sentiment events in the week ahead.

U.S. equity futures edged higher Monday, while global stocks rallied and oil prices fell, as investors braced for a critical week ahead that could define the market’s direction heading into the final months of the year.

With Wall Street still looking for clarity on stimulus heading into the teeth of the third quarter earnings season, as well as a series of events that will gauge the strength of the U.S. consumer, stocks are holding onto solid October gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average creeping into positive territory for the year on Friday.

However, Europe’s recent coronavirus surge, which has lead to a record high 100,000 daily cases across the Continent Sunday, serves as a reminder that the U.S. economy is almost certain to face a similar ‘second wave’ as the domestic weather cools in the coming weeks.

Without stimulus from Washington — which appears as deadlocked and

TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar held tight ranges against its peers on Monday as investors awaited clarity on the health of U.S. President Donald Trump after he tested positive for the coronavirus, sending markets into safe-haven assets.

“With not a lot of major economic indicators released this week, the focus all comes down to Trump’s illness,” said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank.

“There is a welter of information about the severity of his condition, and that is making it difficult for market participants to make a move,” Uno said.

Just weeks before the Nov. 3 election, Trump was flown to hospital for treatment for the coronavirus on Friday, adding another layer of uncertainty and market volatility as Trump’s re-election campaign seeks to fend off Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

Doctors treating Trump for COVID-19 told reporters on Sunday they are monitoring the condition of his lungs after he received supplemental oxygen, hours before Trump surprised supporters outside the hospital by riding past in a motorcade.

The news came the day after contradictory messages from the White House caused widespread confusion about the president’s condition.

“Earlier, some traders bought back dollars and U.S. stock futures immediately after the news came out about Trump briefly leaving the hospital,” Sumitomo Mitsui Bank’s Uno said. “But I don’t think it means that he has been completely cured.”

The dollar index <=USD> was little changed at 93.789, while traders adjusted their positions in safe-harbour currencies.

Against the safe-haven Japanese yen, the dollar rose 0.2% to 105.515 yen

, after making its sharpest fall in more than a month to reach a one-week low of 104.95 on Friday.
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But the greenback edged lower against the Swiss franc to 0.918

, near a one-week low of 0.9163 it marked on Wednesday.
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Meanwhile, sterling

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Oct 2 (Reuters)The dollar drifted toward posting its softest week in more than a month on Friday, as revived hopes for a new U.S. stimulus package to boost the world’s biggest economy had investors seeking out riskier currencies.

Against a basket of six majors =USD, the dollar held near a one-month low in Asia and has slipped 0.9% this week, its largest weekly loss since late August.

The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 made a fresh one-week peak of $0.6659, while the euro and Aussie held just below week highs made overnight.

Moves in morning trade were small, however, with signs of an impasse on Capitol Hill and the risk of disappointment at U.S. jobs data due later in the day holding investors back.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin failed on Thursday to bridge what Pelosi described as differences over dollars and values.

Analysts view their talks as a last-gasp effort to secure relief ahead of the Nov. 3 election for tens of millions of Americans and business including U.S. airlines, which have begun furloughing over 32,000 workers.

“Markets surely remain susceptible to the lack of a deal this side of the election,” said National Australia Bank’s head of foreign exchange strategy, Ray Attrill.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar AUD=D3 was last steady at $0.7182 after climbing as high as $0.7209 overnight. It has so far posted a weekly gain of 2.2%, its best since late August. AUD/

The Japanese yen on the other hand, a safe-haven currency that tends to gain during periods of uncertainty, barely moved this week, suggesting a degree of caution remains. The yen JPY= last traded at 105.55 per dollar.

Sterling had a bumpy overnight session, bouncing around on conflicting Brexit headlines before ultimately

The U.K.’s film and TV production restart scheme won’t be open to applications until it’s secured State Aid approval from the European Union — a process that’s still ongoing, with no clear end date in sight.

“I was hoping it would be several weeks ago, I hope it’s tomorrow, but I just don’t know,” John McVay, CEO of U.K. producers trade org Pact, told Variety on Thursday.

As the scheme remains in limbo, the European Union Commission is planning legal proceedings against the U.K. for breaching its obligations under the Withdrawal Agreement from the European Union. However, it’s unclear whether that initiative will impact the fund in any way.

The £500 million ($644 million) scheme is designed to help U.K. productions that have been suspended and aren’t able to secure insurance going forward, or are yet to shoot due to lack of insurance but can begin principal photography before the end of the year.

“We pushed for the draft guidelines to be published earlier than perhaps the government wanted to, because we wanted the market to understand what was involved in applying to the fund, how it was structured and what you’d have to pay, so people could plan for that as they were getting production up and running again, or if they were already in production, what they’d have to start doing in order to collect the evidence required to be eligible for the fund.” said McVay.

“We’re pressing hard for more information to come out just as soon as government is comfortable to do that. I would have issued all of this much earlier, but I’m not government,” he continued.

Plans for the fund — proposals for which were first revealed by Variety in May — were officially announced in late July. Terms of the scheme were unveiled

TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar edged down in Asian trade on Wednesday as investors counted down to the first U.S. presidential debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

The 90-minute presidential debate at 0100 GMT will be closely tracked by financial markets with some political analysts seeing it as Trump’s best chance to get on top of a race he has consistently lagged in opinion polls.

“There is no consensus in the market on how either candidate’s victory will move the dollar,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.

“If, for example, the debate turns out to be a perceived victory by Trump, it’s going to be interesting to see how the markets move– particularly the dollar, U.S. stocks futures and 10-year Treasury yields,” he said.

The dollar index against a basket of currencies fell 0.32% to 93.858 <=USD>, after hitting a two-month high last week.

Also weighing on the greenback were month- and quarter-end currency flows, while better-than-expected U.S. economic data also dented its perceived safe-haven bid.

U.S. consumer confidence rebounded more than expected in September as households’ views of the labour market improved.

The euro

was steady at $1.1742, having hit a one-week high of $1.1746 overnight. Against the yen, the single currency changed hands at 124.04 yen, hovering near a two-week high of 124.11 yen

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The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc at 0.9195 franc, after falling as low as 0.9191 franc overnight

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Against the yen, the greenback weakened slightly to 105.67 yen

, a fraction below a two-week high of 105.74 it marked overnight.
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Markets also remain focussed on progress made around a U.S. fiscal stimulus packaged to cushion the coronavirus blow.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Tuesday she hoped to